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    Re: Christianity is a conspiracy

    I do not recognize the existence of God. Please establish it or don't claim it. Anything less is laziness.
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Without evidence that it's 0.5 probable that an unknown coin will land on a side that shows the head of Richard Nixon facing up when it's flipped, we can't have a justified belief, much less know,...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    OK, but your being convinced that p is true does not mean that p is certainly or absolutely true. If there is any chance that you are mistaken in what you take yourself to know, then your knowledge...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    It's not contradictory because I made it clear earlier (or tried to) that when we use the term "to know" when we are talking about states of affairs in the world, it doesn't mean "to know absolutely"...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Right. To determine whether the proposition "It is raining outside" is probably true we need evidence of some kind. Evidence in the form of the historical precipitation pattern of the area (if we're...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    I will note this about your point: the 1 in 5 odds comes from our experience in the world. It is decidedly a posteriori knowledge, not a priori. So this is very much what I'm talking about. We can go...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    OK, I'll try to support my assertion.

    Do you believe that knowledge (or at least justified belief) is possible? If not, then there's really no point in continuing this.

    If OTOH you do believe...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Why is there a need to support that with which we both agree? Isn't that just a waste of time?

    OTOH, if you disagree with the contention that only evidence makes a possibly true proposition...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    As far as the probability that p is true goes, it doesn't matter that the "amount of evidence" for p is the same as the "amount of evidence" for ~p if there is no evidence for either p or ~p.

    The...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    OK, I see. Premise 2 says nothing about a situation in which there is no evidence for p and no evidence for ~p. So premise 2 says nothing about the situation we're discussing, i.e., Is it rational to...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    I apologize for my poorly constructed question. Reading that back to myself just now even I'm not sure what I was asking you. I'll try again.

    If there is no evidence for p and no evidence for ~p,...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    This is an interesing development. So you draw a distinction between "amount of evidence" and "evidence"?

    IOW, the "evidence" that supports p and ~p is not equal. Only the "amount of evidence"...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Premise #2 in your argument is not just flawed but is false for the reason I've given previously. It is false because a proposition's having no evidence in support of it does not mean,...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    A guess is irrational if the guess is your answer to a question about which you have insufficient evidence to form a rational belief. So, yes, emphatically yes. One should NOT do that if one's...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    It's not the second time you've asked me this question. Actually, I think it's the third time you've asked me this question (or a similar question)

    . . . and for the third time I'll answer it by...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Yeah, Belts, what's your question? In case, Jesus doesn't answer it (spoiler alert: He won't) maybe I can.




    Well, they would learn that all of our physical theories about the universe that...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    I'll answer your question first:

    Since I answered a similar question in the thread earlier, I'll just cut'n'paste my answer from there: "I never said that someone can't 'guess' at a result. I've...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Sorry but "no evidence" is not an "amount of evidence." No evidence is zero evidence. It's zilch, nada, none. Probability in the complete absence of evidence is like dividing by zero -- it's...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    False dilemma. It's also possible that you've misused the analogy, which I believe to be the case.

    Regardless of the above, if you go back and read the thread you'll find that you believed that...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    How do you "know" that 50% of the values lie above the coin's propensity to produce "heads" (assuming a random coin flip, which btw, we really can't assume) and that 50% of the values lie below it if...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Since we have no evidence about the coin or the flipping process, we can't know whether the coin is evenly balanced toward either outcome or if it's tilted slightly or significantly toward a specific...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    I never said you made that argument. It is MY argument to which you apparently have no response . . . which is . . . OK.

    The argument again (in a condensed version) is:

    If it's just as likely...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    On the contrary. It is not the evidence that you lack that guides your belief about how the coin will land, it's the evidence that you have (or at least that you believe you have) that does. And you...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    But your claim isn't that a fair coin flipped in a random way will land 'heads' everytime it is flipped. Your claim is that it will land 'heads' about half the times that it is flipped. So yes you do...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    How is it possible for you to say such a thing? Of course you have evidence that it will land heads! For one thing, you know that a "head" is on one side of the coin!

    Or is it your contention that...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    For all intents and purposes, you've practically stipulated that the evidence shows the probability to be 50/50!

    However, in the absence of ALL evidence regarding such a situation, no probability...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Exactly. She's confused the probability of meeting ETs (which is the question she was asked) with the possibility of meeting ETs (which is the questioned she answered).
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    Re: Supernatural?

    What you offered as evidence for the proposition "Ghosts exist" is so weak it's not worthy of serious consideration in making the determination whether that proposition is true. That's all I intended...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Have I got this right? You seem to be saying that because there are links on the internet to websites on which possible ghost recordings can be found, that this counts as possible evidence for the...
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    Re: Supernatural?

    Two points here. First, your position on this is not a reasonable position to take if one's epistemic goal is to have as many true beliefs and as few false beliefs as possible. This is so because it...
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