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  1. #341
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Sgt Pepper: Come on man, Obama uses rhetoric just like the rest. H directs the ire of one group (that supports him) towards others (that oppose him) because that is one of the games you play in politics. While his opponents would like to pretend that's some special thing unique to Obama, we know its not. Obama is not a saint, he's a politician. I like him fairly well but clearly he stokes the fires and slings some pejoratives when he thinks the voters he wants to get are going to be receptive to it. Sadly its what many folks respond well to.

    Ibelsd: The Fat Cats comment, so far as I can tell, was aimed not at rich people in general but bankers specifically for opposing the latest round of legislation aimed at curtailing the sorts of actions that led to the recent recession. In this case he's attacking a fringe group, not courting one. Bank owners aren't what you would generally called popular figures.

    http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar...ing3-2010mar03
    The challenge facing the industry is formidable. In a Gallup poll last year, only 19% of Americans surveyed expressed confidence in the integrity of bankers, down from 41% in 2005 and the lowest level since Gallup began asking the question in 1976.

    I'm not contending your overall point, I think its clear Obama targets interest groups to gain support. He also has a pitch for the more moderate non-interest group folks such as myself. Nothing unusual about all that. The GOP candidates spend plenty of time courting fringe groups too and also have a popular message that is more general.

    But with the fat cats... not sure the case fits.
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  2. #342
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    Sgt Pepper: Come on man, Obama uses rhetoric just like the rest. H directs the ire of one group (that supports him) towards others (that oppose him) because that is one of the games you play in politics. While his opponents would like to pretend that's some special thing unique to Obama, we know its not. Obama is not a saint, he's a politician. I like him fairly well but clearly he stokes the fires and slings some pejoratives when he thinks the voters he wants to get are going to be receptive to it. Sadly its what many folks respond well to.

    Ibelsd: The Fat Cats comment, so far as I can tell, was aimed not at rich people in general but bankers specifically for opposing the latest round of legislation aimed at curtailing the sorts of actions that led to the recent recession. In this case he's attacking a fringe group, not courting one. Bank owners aren't what you would generally called popular figures.

    http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar...ing3-2010mar03
    The challenge facing the industry is formidable. In a Gallup poll last year, only 19% of Americans surveyed expressed confidence in the integrity of bankers, down from 41% in 2005 and the lowest level since Gallup began asking the question in 1976.

    I'm not contending your overall point, I think its clear Obama targets interest groups to gain support. He also has a pitch for the more moderate non-interest group folks such as myself. Nothing unusual about all that. The GOP candidates spend plenty of time courting fringe groups too and also have a popular message that is more general.

    But with the fat cats... not sure the case fits.
    First, and maybe my memory just isn't clicking, but I don't remember a President ever using a pejorative against an entire industry or group of people. The fatcats thing was directed at bankers, who are/weren't overly popular, but the name-calling itself was very appealing only to a fringe group. Again, had he said the same thing, but in a less hostile manner, his message would have had the broader appeal considering bankers aren't too popular right now.

    Second, I don't think he has made much of an appeal to independents. That is the whole point here. At this time in the election cycle, the candidates tend to veer to center. Obama did it in 2008. You see Romney doing it now. Clinton did it. Bush did it. Obama is not really doing that. His comments on gay marriage are the latest evidence. I mean, gay marriage is very popular with his base and the more left-leaning voter. It is not overly popular among independents. It certainly isn't appealing to right-leaning independents. Obama has, to me, decided to disregard the middle. He's going for the fringes and is trying to collect enough so he can pretty much ignore the moderate voter. He'll direct some lip service to the middle, but look at his biggest messages. He is conceding that he won't win on the economy.
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  3. #343
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Update time

    We have a running mate for Romney so its time to filter out those who picked running mates for him. Correct answers go to the top of the potential winners, and wrong ones take a step down. I'm calling these VP picks as tie breakers. Lots of Rubio fans going down in flames as Romney picks Ryan for the VP slot. Will it be a boon that energizes his base or a bust that sends independents to Obama or out of the voting entirely? Certainly Ryan is a gamblers bet, doubling down on the supply side economics debate. Meanwhile the Obama campaign seems to be running an increasingly attack focused campaign vilifying the rich and powerful.

    You can still play but its too late to win unless you make a very bold prediction of some kind.

    In the Game plus tie breaker potential to win it all
    Moonloop: Obama > Romney (all below 50% due to third parties)

    Still in the Game
    Sigfried: Obama > Romney (Down to the wire)
    Boris: Obama > Romney (In very close contest)
    JohnLocke: Obama > Romney (by a hairs breath)
    Vandaler: Obama > Romney (due to recovering economy)
    KevinBrowning: Obama > Romney (rooting for Ron Paul)
    King of the East: Obama > Romney (Wishes it were Huntsman)
    Greenape: Romney > Obama (decisive win but definitely not a landslide)
    Ibelsd: Romney > Obama (Because the economy still sucks)

    Might still be right overall but made erroneous tie breaker picks
    Someguy: Romney/Rubio > Obama/Biden
    Manise: Obama/Biden > Romney/Rubio
    WingNut: Romney (with Christie or Rubio) > Obama (Reagan like landslide victory)

    Late to the game but you can still play for honors

    Not strong enough predictions to be declared a winner or predicted too late for the title
    (eligible for honorable mention of not being wrong)
    Dr Gonzo: Obama > Republican (GOP will self destruct over moral issues)
    Daman: Romney > Obama OR Paul Ryan if he runs
    Fyshed: Obama > (Whomever)
    John Locke: Obama > (Perry or Romney)
    The Joker: Narrow win for Romney or Obama
    Booger: Cain will not win
    Gerkin: Obama > weak conservatives OR Strong conservative statist (Romney Perry, or Gingrich) > Obama
    Mind Trap028: Herman Cain as VP > Obama (Anyone beats obama)
    cstamford: (Santorum or Gingrich) > Obama OR Romney > Obama (by a small margin)
    Sunguard: Obama>Romney>all the other third party canidates

    Better luck next time
    Spartacus: Hermain Cain > Obama (All states but NY, CA, and IL)
    Evensaul: Perry (barring new candidates) > Obama & (anyone beats Obama barring economic surge)

    Bowed out
    Onalandline: Says it is too early but thinks Obama looses unless America is stupid (Sig: Never bet against stupid!)[/QUOTE]
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  5. #344
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    2 Days left! Obama is said to have an edge in the electoral college while the popular vote is as split as split gets in the polls. But elections always have a few surprises so you never know!

    Soon there will be glorious winners and tragic losers.
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  6. #345
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    My prediction;

    President Obama wins with 51% of the popular vote and 332 votes in the Electoral College. President Obama wins every swing state except North Carolina.

  7. #346
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mordecai View Post
    My prediction;

    President Obama wins with 51% of the popular vote and 332 votes in the Electoral College. President Obama wins every swing state except North Carolina.
    LMFAO. I wish you would be willing to bet money on that.
    I will no longer be replying to any post from a Liberal going forward. I will continue, as normal, to discuss topics and engage in intellectual exchanges with non-leftist

  8. #347
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Someguy View Post
    LMFAO. I wish you would be willing to bet money on that.


    How much were you thinking and how may I collect?

  9. #348
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I have Obama with 281 and Romney 235, plus Colorado and Virginia which I can't really place at the moment. If Obama wins Virginia, it's all over for Romney, even if he wins Ohio. In fact, it looks like Romney needs to win Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to win the Presidency- that's pretty steep.

    Battleground States:
    NH: Obama
    VA: ?
    OH: Obama
    NC: Romney
    Iowa: Obama
    Colorado: ?
    PA: Obama
    FL: Romney
    MI: Obama
    MN: Obama
    WI: Obama
    "Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something."-Plato

  10. #349
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mordecai View Post
    How much were you thinking and how may I collect?
    Any amount you would be able to wire into my account.
    I will no longer be replying to any post from a Liberal going forward. I will continue, as normal, to discuss topics and engage in intellectual exchanges with non-leftist

  11. #350
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by JOHN
    I have Obama with 281 and Romney 235, plus Colorado and Virginia which I can't really place at the moment. If Obama wins Virginia, it's all over for Romney, even if he wins Ohio. In fact, it looks like Romney needs to win Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to win the Presidency- that's pretty steep.

    Battleground States:
    NH: Obama
    VA: ?
    OH: Obama
    NC: Romney
    Iowa: Obama
    Colorado: ?
    PA: Obama
    FL: Romney
    MI: Obama
    MN: Obama
    WI: Obama
    I am not sure I trust the polls yet. I think there is a good chance independents are not properly reflected in the polls. When I hear about the internals of the polls, I always wonder how they give Obama the lead at all.

    Anyway, we will all know real soon. Even with that, I am not sure who will win OH, and without it Romeny probably can't win.


    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2038645.html
    Quote Originally Posted by LINK
    So what are the arguments for a failure in the polling that could be concealing a Romney victory?

    • A late trend in Romney's favor. No such pattern is apparent. If anything, the polling has shifted slightly in Obama's favor over the last few days.

    • A last minute "break" of undecided voters against the incumbent. Such a shift occurred in 1996, when the final round of national polls understated support for Republican challenger Robert Dole while getting the percentages for President Bill Clinton and independent candidate Ross Perot exactly right. That pattern has not been in evidence in closer elections like 2012, however, and those who have closely examined the still undecided voters in recent days, including the Pew Research Center, Marist College and political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, see no looming "break" to Romney.

    • A Romney advantage among independents suggesting that state polls "vastly overstate" the percentage of Democratic identifiers. Romney's big lead among independents in some polls appears to be more about vagaries in the measurement of party identification than the composition of the samples. Polls showing Romney advantages among independents, for example, appear to have a larger share of independents who lean Republican.

    • Polls are heavily overstating Democratic early voters in battleground states. While pollsters do face a challenge in accurately incorporating the increasing number of early voters into their samples, and while some polls may overstate the early vote, most appear to be producing reasonable estimates of the early vote.

    • Cell phone only voters. A third of U.S. adults now live in households without a landline phone, and the challenges of reaching "cell phone only" voters is the most likely source of potential error in the 2012 polls. If this issue is causing systematic problems in the polls, however, it will most likely work to Obama's favor.

    More polls will be released later on Monday, including final national numbers from Gallup, whose daily tracking survey has been the most consistently favorable to Romney in October. But today's additional data will not resolve these questions. We will know whether the polls have been collectively accurate when the votes are counted.
    To serve man.

  12. #351
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mordecai View Post
    My prediction;

    President Obama wins with 51% of the popular vote and 332 votes in the Electoral College. President Obama wins every swing state except North Carolina.
    Agree Obama win, but Romney also takes Florida, due in part to Republican efforts to thwart early voting there.

    LMAO at OP:

    Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus
    Now, of course I am going to put a lot of qualifiers on this. A lot can happen over the next 14 months: but barring any sudden unexpected shift in the political landscape, if the current trends hold Herman Cain will be inaugurated in Jan. 2013.

    So, I am on the record now. I have a tiny reputation here for predicting political happenings.

  13. #352
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I call it too close to call. It's D-Day!

  14. #353
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Booger View Post
    Agree Obama win, but Romney also takes Florida, due in part to Republican efforts to thwart early voting there.

    LMAO at OP:



    Where is your outrage over the military vote being oppressed? I notice you Libs dont care much about that.
    I will no longer be replying to any post from a Liberal going forward. I will continue, as normal, to discuss topics and engage in intellectual exchanges with non-leftist

  15. #354
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Someguy View Post
    Where is your outrage over the military vote being oppressed? I notice you Libs dont care much about that.
    If they actually were doing anything like that I would be outraged. The fact of the matter is they are not, and you are being fed some grade A ******** by bias news sources. This is assuming you are talking about the Ohio news story that claims the Obama campaign is suing to stop early voting by the military, when the fact of the case is they are suing to allow early voting by anyone, and not only by the military. The republicans are trying to limit this to only military personnel thus prompting the lawsuit.

    Lets take a look at this ********....
    Here is a link to a typical article
    http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Ohio...8/03/id/447552

    This is the headline: "Obama Campaign Sues in Bid to Suppress Military Vote"

    Scary eh? And then here is t content of the same article.

    In addition, state law allows families of armed forces members and civilians overseas to vote through the Monday before an election, while early voting for all other Ohioans ends the preceding Friday. The Nov. 6 election falls on a Tuesday.

    The Obama lawsuit said that the latter part of the Ohio law is “arbitrary” with “no discernible rational basis” — and that all voters should be able to vote on those days. The campaign seeks a court order invalidating the statutes.

    Before the changes, local election boards had the discretion to set their own early, in-person voting hours on the days before the election. People were allowed up until the day before the election to vote in person. Weekend voting varied among the state's 88 counties.
    So prior to the gop led changes, everyone could vote up to election day, after their change only military personnel could vote the week before the election. Obama is arguing everyone should be able to vote that week.

    The headline of that article (which is all that many people ever bother to read) is a blatant lie denied by the very content of the article which likely they were too lazy to bother writing themselves but just snagged from the AP and then slapped a ******** headline on.
    Last edited by Sigfried; November 6th, 2012 at 10:44 AM.
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  17. #355
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    And it looks pretty solid that we have an Obama win baring any dramatic surprises. Exactly how big.. not sure but its at least fairly close. I'll start preparing our prognostication breakdown.

    ---------- Post added at 09:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:49 PM ----------

    And now oh predictors and prognosticators, we see who has working crystal balls and who needs more fortune telling school.

    Note: I'll do a final update when the final counts are in.

    Winners: You can declare you called it well in advance!
    Moonloop: Obama > Romney (all below 50% due to third parties)
    Sigfried: Obama > Romney (Down to the wire)
    Boris: Obama > Romney (In very close contest)
    JohnLocke: Obama > Romney (by a hairs breath)
    KevinBrowning: Obama > Romney (rooting for Ron Paul)
    King of the East: Obama > Romney (Wishes it were Huntsman)
    Vandaler: Obama > Romney (due to recovering economy)

    You called it but your details were perhaps off a bit of made a late prediction
    Manise: Obama/Biden > Romney/Rubio
    Sunguard: Obama>Romney>all the other third party canidates

    Not wrong, but not exactly right either
    Dr Gonzo: Obama > Republican (GOP will self destruct over moral issues)
    Fyshed: Obama > (Whomever)
    John Locke: Obama > (Perry or Romney)
    The Joker: Narrow win for Romney or Obama
    Booger: Cain will not win

    Sorry but you were wrong, time to get more tea leaves
    Someguy: Romney/Rubio > Obama/Biden
    WingNut: Romney (with Christie or Rubio) > Obama (Reagan like landslide victory)
    Greenape: Romney > Obama (decisive win but definitely not a landslide)
    Ibelsd: Romney > Obama (Because the economy still sucks)
    Onalandline: Says it is too early but thinks Obama looses unless America is stupid (Sig: Never bet against stupid!)
    Daman: Romney > Obama OR Paul Ryan if he runs
    Gerkin: Obama > weak conservatives OR Strong conservative statist (Romney Perry, or Gingrich) > Obama
    cstamford: (Santorum or Gingrich) > Obama OR Romney > Obama (by a small margin)

    Not only do you loose, but you kind of lost the extra mile
    Evensaul: Perry (barring new candidates) > Obama & (anyone beats Obama barring economic surge)
    Mind Trap028: Herman Cain as VP > Obama (Anyone beats obama)

    So wrong we love you for it!
    Spartacus: Hermain Cain > Obama (All states but NY, CA, and IL)
    Last edited by Sigfried; November 7th, 2012 at 01:05 PM.
    Feed me some debate pellets!

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  19. #356
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    Winners: You can declare you called it well in advance!
    Moonloop: Obama > Romney (all below 50% due to third parties)
    Sigfried: Obama > Romney (Down to the wire)
    Boris: Obama > Romney (In very close contest)
    JohnLocke: Obama > Romney (by a hairs breath)
    KevinBrowning: Obama > Romney (rooting for Ron Paul)
    King of the East: Obama > Romney (Wishes it were Huntsman)
    Well, I called it back in the GOP primaries. Romney wins nomination, Obama wins election. I'm not too pleased about being right, in this case, but at least I got to cast my first write-in vote for Ron Paul. Not that he was a registered candidate in Texas, but it gave me a sense of satisfaction, for voting in line with my actual beliefs, for once, instead of compromising for the Conservative "Name Brand" Candidate.

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  21. #357
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by KevinBrowning View Post
    Well, I called it back in the GOP primaries. Romney wins nomination, Obama wins election. I'm not too pleased about being right, in this case, but at least I got to cast my first write-in vote for Ron Paul. Not that he was a registered candidate in Texas, but it gave me a sense of satisfaction, for voting in line with my actual beliefs, for once, instead of compromising for the Conservative "Name Brand" Candidate.
    Just goes to show how stupid Americans really are. Well, the welfare and racist vote certainly is happy....the well will run dry eventually.
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  22. #358
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    You called it but your details were perhaps off a bit of made a late prediction
    Vandaler: Obama > Romney (due to recovering economy)
    Hmm, not the way I see it... when I made that prediction, there was still possibilities for the economy to go into a double-dip recession which did not happen.
    My prediction was actually implicitly triple: Romney in the primary, no double dip but a slow recovery and an Obama win.
    A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.
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  23. #359
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by SIG
    Not only do you loose, but you kind of lost the extra mile
    Evensaul: Perry (barring new candidates) > Obama & (anyone beats Obama barring economic surge)
    Mind Trap028: Herman Cain as VP > Obama (Anyone beats obama)

    Yup... I was wrong.
    I think I fundamentally miscalculated the political grounds that compose the American people.
    Far more people "want things" from the gov than I thought. More people buy into the "eat the rich" mentality, and more people are too easily ms-informed by the media. A lot of people bought the Obama message of "Bushes fault", and apparently Obama being president during hurricane sandy was more important than his passing of an unpopular healthcare bill. Finally, all the pundits that said Romney was running his campaign badly, were apparently right.


    So Obama is Pres for at least another 4 years.
    Good luck everyone.
    I'm sure everything is going to be just fine.


    By the way... Who was running for president?
    To serve man.

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  25. #360
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by MindTrap028 View Post
    Yup... I was wrong.
    I think I fundamentally miscalculated the political grounds that compose the American people.
    Far more people "want things" from the gov than I thought. More people buy into the "eat the rich" mentality, and more people are too easily ms-informed by the media. A lot of people bought the Obama message of "Bushes fault", and apparently Obama being president during hurricane sandy was more important than his passing of an unpopular healthcare bill. Finally, all the pundits that said Romney was running his campaign badly, were apparently right.


    So Obama is Pres for at least another 4 years.
    Good luck everyone.
    I'm sure everything is going to be just fine.


    By the way... Who was running for president?
    I wonder who Obama is going to blame this term.
    I will no longer be replying to any post from a Liberal going forward. I will continue, as normal, to discuss topics and engage in intellectual exchanges with non-leftist

 

 
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