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  1. #1
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    2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I am going to make a prediction for the 2012 election.

    Herman Cain will defeat Pres. Obama in a landslide victory winning every state except NY, CA, and IL. It will be close in NY.

    Now, of course I am going to put a lot of qualifiers on this. A lot can happen over the next 14 months: but barring any sudden unexpected shift in the political landscape, if the current trends hold – Herman Cain will be inaugurated in Jan. 2013.

    Herman Cain wins people over once they see him, hear him, learn about his story and listen to his message. He is continually proving the pundits wrong by winning over voters every chance he has.

    Based on informal polls I have been conducting, the American people are aching for a president who has never been a career politician.

    Cain won the Florida Straw Poll yesterday. This is not a popular straw like Ames Iowa. This one is specially organized. Every single Florida Straw Poll has accurately predicted the next GOP candidate for president, since they started having them in 1979. Cain slammed Perry and Mitney by exceeding their combined vote totals -- and no professional pundits expected this. Cain didn't really put an extraordinary effort into this victory either. He appeals to Tea Party people, religious conservatives as well as the Ron Paul wing -- while more importantly -- appealing to people aching for a president who is a not career politician. A president who knows what it is going to take to get American businesses hiring and growing again.

    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/2194...bama-perry.htm

    http://youtu.be/UDG-uvE1UOM




    So, I am on the record now. I have a tiny reputation here for predicting political happenings.

    What do you think?

    Here is a link to his official Biography.

    http://www.hermancain.com/about

    What are your predictions?
    "I've noticed that everyone who is for abortion has already been born" -- Ronald Reagan

    How can a moral wrong be a Civil Right?

  2. #2
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Spart, I can't believe you're making such a ridiculous prediction. Everyone knows that Republicans are racists, and would never nominate a black man!
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  3. #3
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Yes especially those "teabaggers". Which is why pundits in MSM can't explain why Cain is so popular among them. So they ignore Cain ... but he will go all the way to the White House
    "I've noticed that everyone who is for abortion has already been born" -- Ronald Reagan

    How can a moral wrong be a Civil Right?

  4. #4
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I certainly hope you are right. I am heavily in favor of Cain to be the next President. I cant imagine him losing to Obama should he get the endorsement of the GOP. After him, I would support Perry followed in a distant third by that Mormon cat who's name escapes me.

    It entertains me how both the GOP and Libs try to ignore Cain and hope that it will be enough to derail him.

    But, then again, I am a racist, homophobe, Bible thumping, let the poor children starve to death on the streets Conservative. *rolls eyes*

  5. #5
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus View Post
    I am going to make a prediction for the 2012 election.
    ...
    What do you think?
    I think this prediction is extremely unlikely, and reeks with optimistic enthusiasm.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus View Post
    Every single Florida Straw Poll has accurately predicted the next GOP candidate for president, since they started having them in 1979.
    But you don't mention that those have only been held 4 times (Ronald Reagan in 1979, George H.W. Bush in 1987 and Bob Dole in 1995) and one of those, Bob Dole, was a notorious loser where it matters.

    Plus, the scope of the victory you are predicting is not realistic, with far to many states flipping.

    He may, I don't know, gain momentum to perhaps win the nomination, but he would still be winning over a lackluster field of candidates. His Achilles heal is in foreign policy where he is surprisingly ignorant, and he don't seem to be surrounded by a strong team of advisers either. In fact, he seems to be poorly surrounded all around, and for someone with no experience, it's a bad Omen.
    Last edited by Vandaler; September 26th, 2011 at 09:24 AM.
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  6. #6
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Herman Cain may defeat Obama... but it will be as Vice presidential candidate.
    I apologize to anyone waiting on a response from me. I am experiencing a time warp, suddenly their are not enough hours in a day. As soon as I find a replacement part to my flux capacitor regulator, time should resume it's normal flow.

  7. #7
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Vandaler View Post
    I think this prediction is extremely unlikely, and reeks with optimistic enthusiasm.



    But you don't mention that those have only been held 4 times (Ronald Reagan in 1979, George H.W. Bush in 1987 and Bob Dole in 1995) and one of those, Bob Dole, was a notorious looser where it matters.

    Plus, the scope of the victory you are predicting is not realistic, with far to many states flipping.

    He may, I don't know, gain momentum to perhaps win the nomination, but he would still be winning over a lackluster field of candidates. His Achilles heal is in foreign policy where he is surprisingly ignorant, and he don't seem to be surrounded by a strong team of advisers either. In fact, he seems to be poorly surrounded all around, and for someone with no experience, it's a bad Omen.
    Given how the straw poll is conducted -- voters must register about a year in advance, pay $125, and spend two days listening to candidates -- I think it is essentially a very large focus group. You can't argue with its track record. It's better than any other indicator for who will win the GOP nomination.

    Had Perry or Romney won as decisively, I would be predicting their win. Am I glad Cain got almost 40% of the vote in an 8-way race? Yes. My informal polling indicates Americans are aching for a president who is not a career politician -- someone who will inspire confidence and shake things up.

    As to foreign policy...Cain graduated Morehouse with a BS in Mathematics. He has a post-graduate degree in computer science from Purdue. This indicates he has strong "C" behaving traits -- in that he likes to have as much information as possible before making a decision. In that regard, I think he is being refreshingly honest, when he says "I don't work in the Administration. I don't have access to secret information. Therefore I am not going to state a policy now, when I don't have all the facts."

    He does though ask the KEY question: "What is our mission"? This is the question the military has been asking for many years.

    Cain spent six years working in the Pentagon for the Navy Department. He is experienced enough with how things in the DOD work to admit:

    1.) I don't have all the information I need to make a decision.

    2.) Put the right question to the right people.

    America does not need a policy wonk as its president. What is needed is someone who asks the right questions, act decisively, and be able to admit when mistakes are made. Cain has those qualities.

  8. #8
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    My prediction: I'll go on record as predicting an Obama victory by a narrow margin in a hotly contested race of the likes of Bush v Gore.

    Unlike Spart I don't have massive confidence in my pick, I'd give it about 60% I'll go 80% on the highly contested part, no one is popular right now and none of the GOP hopefuls seem to honestly light a fire beyond specific areas of their base.

    Cain doesn't have the backing to make a serious run and his kind of supporters are not the sort of internet firestorm types so far as I can tell. The GOP is too divided in its ambitions. The left will pick its sorry asses up when the GOP picks their man (or woman) and will find the will to trudge to the polls and slog this one out.

    http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep...-poll-20110924
    Cain, who invested more time than money into the Florida convention, spent three days in and around Orlando, parked his campaign bus outside the convention center and played host to hundreds of delegates at a hotel reception the night before the vote.

    However, his lightly funded campaign has virtually no infrastructure, little organization and remains far behind the leaders in the polls. Even those who voted for him Saturday said they don’t expect him to win the Florida primary this winter.

    Lukens said he treated the straw ballot like a pre-season football game, rather than an actual primary vote. "I know Cain isn't going to be nominated," he said. "This was an opportunity to vote how you really feel."
    Still, Spart makes an interesting case so I'm not going to say his prediction is impossible, just unlikely. I'd say between 10 and 20 to 1 odds.


    Oh ya, one more thing...
    After he took over Godfather Pizza... it became kind of a crap pizza joint. I'm sure it made more money, but the pizza sucks and it used to be pretty good.
    Last edited by Sigfried; September 26th, 2011 at 09:14 AM.
    Feed me some debate pellets!

  9. #9
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    My own prediction,

    An Obama victory, unless Romney is the candidate, in which case I favor Romney to win.

    My rationale is simple, any other candidate then Romney will galvanize the left enough (and turn off independents) to give Obama a victory.
    A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.
    - Wayne Gretzky

  10. #10
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Romney unless Paul Ryan enters then he may win it if the public looks past his youth.
    What can be asserted without proof can be dismissed without proof.

  11. #11
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    We'll see. People are angry at politicians. Personal campaigning is more important than money or organization in the early states. Right now Cain is the only candidate whose momentum is growing exponentially.

    The Florida Straw Poll is no small victory. The people voting in it are a cross-section of people likely to volunteer and contribute.
    "I've noticed that everyone who is for abortion has already been born" -- Ronald Reagan

    How can a moral wrong be a Civil Right?

  12. #12
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I predict an Obama victory myself; not because I particularly like the guy, but because the GOP candidates are pushing themselves too far to the right. It might look good to all of those Tea Party voters, but when it comes around to claim some independent voters this may be a fatal flaw.

    I think it'll come down to Obama v. Perry or Obama v. Romney. I believe that in either case Obama would win, but Obama v. Romney would be a pretty close race.

    The others just don't seem to be able to pull together the same kind of support; one straw poll victory looks nice, but that won't change the fact that Romney and Perry have ridiculous amounts of money with which to air advertisements. Money is a big thing in National Campaigns. Bachmann won the Iowa poll, and it didn't get her anywhere.
    "Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something."-Plato

  13. #13
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Perry wins the nomination unless Christie or somebody unexpected jumps in.

    Republican nominee, whoever it is, beats Obama.

    Obama could be saved by a big economic upswing, but I don't think that is going to happen.
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  14. #14
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I think disillusionment and disappointment are going to result in Dems staying home on election day...enough to make a difference in some swing states
    "I've noticed that everyone who is for abortion has already been born" -- Ronald Reagan

    How can a moral wrong be a Civil Right?

  15. #15
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus View Post
    I think disillusionment and disappointment are going to result in Dems staying home on election day...enough to make a difference in some swing states
    That's a lot to assume; I don't think the voter turnout will change much, and definitely not enough to make that much of a difference. The problem with the current increasingly-right GOP is that it creates a motivation for Democrats to vote for Obama, namely, that they don't want a Republican to win.

    Obama isn't doing nearly bad enough a job to "disillusion" a sizable chunk of his voter base. That's just wishful thinking.
    "Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something."-Plato

  16. #16
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    I really don't think Obama has a chance to win at all. The economy is terrible, and getting worse. We have huge debt and his "fix" is to raise taxes that ultimately will not address the real problem and that is SPENDING. Everyone knows spending is the problem (I mean voters). Obama has failed too much to have a hope of winning. All the republicans have to do is put up a competent candidate and the media will have a hard time butchering him in smear campaigns enough to cause Obama to win. Obama's numbers are bad, and they will get worse with an artificial bump right before election followed by a sound defeat. The election will not be close unless.

    1) A new and "real" war is started. .. Like with china.
    or
    2) The republican candidate makes such a serious blunder as to be on the level of insanity.

    I think anyone who thinks obama is going to win at this point, is not really looking at the problems he faces realistically. If the media says Obama has a problem, you can bet it is much, much worse than they are letting on.
    I apologize to anyone waiting on a response from me. I am experiencing a time warp, suddenly their are not enough hours in a day. As soon as I find a replacement part to my flux capacitor regulator, time should resume it's normal flow.

  17. #17
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Someguy View Post
    I certainly hope you are right. I am heavily in favor of Cain to be the next President. I cant imagine him losing to Obama should he get the endorsement of the GOP. After him, I would support Perry followed in a distant third by that Mormon cat who's name escapes me.
    There are currently two of them; Mitt Romney (Spart calls him Mitney in his OP), and John Huntsman.

    It entertains me how both the GOP and Libs try to ignore Cain and hope that it will be enough to derail him.

    But, then again, I am a racist, homophobe, Bible thumping, let the poor children starve to death on the streets Conservative. *rolls eyes*
    We're that bad??? Wow. Thank God his love is unconditional.

    ---------- Post added at 10:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:42 PM ----------

    Given that whoever wins the Republican nomination will probably win the general election, you're basically predicting Cain wins the Republican nomination. Very bold; and makes some sense.

    But the animous against career politicians can be over done. There's something to be said for knowing which wheels to grease to get things done in Washington. Look at what happened to Obama with both houses of Congress in his back pocket for two whole years. There's a strong likeliihood that the Repubs will take the Senate and keep a solid majority in the House, but their chances of getting a fillibuster proof majority in the Senate are not nearly as good. The question remains is boardroom experience more important to getting things done in Washington, a town as alien to corporate realities as the Martian landscape, or national political experience?

    There is little question the voters want a return to looking to the private sector to produce national prosperity, the public sector so clearly and so recently having failed miserably in that regard. The voters will have to decide between politicians with some business experience, and a businessman who is seeking his first political office as President of the United States, as to who can most quickly and efficiently return this country to national prosperity and a much closer walk with its founding principles, while at the same time securing national security and staving off the growing economic and military threats from China.

    Personal reveiw of the candidates with any chance at all for the Republican nomination at the present time:

    Huntsman, no; too willing to be whatever seems to work, and being Obama's ambassador really hurts. And what's with the "Jon"?? That'll play well in the heartland.

    Romney, maybe; has a few issues, but has explained most of them well in the debates thus far. Great name recognition and he's a veteran to the process. Been out of politics for several years, and this helps too. Few people know his only "business" is investing, and not all of them have been good investments, so his claim that "I know business" is a bit hollow.

    Paul, no; his foreign policy views are just naive, to the point of scary in the nuclear age, but otherwise the best candidate in the field. If any one of the candidates would actually clean out a bunch of those federal agencies and reform Treasury it would be him. Plus he's small, so he'd make a smaller target after election.

    Perry, maaaaybe; but I just can't get past that same feeling I had with Huckabee last time around that he's just not what he seems to be. Loved the video of him dancing with the rabbis. Next years new reality show, perhaps?

    Bachmann, no; good solid conservative, heart of gold, greatest mom who ever lived, makes too many rhetorical gaffs, so will spend all her time explaining them instead of running for president. Media hates her in a special way reserved for female conservatives running for national office.

    Gingrich; no; too little money and organization, too much history, most of it revisionist or irrelevant, but that won't matter. Otherwise the second best candidate in the field after a revised Ron Paul with a rational national defense strategy. Been out of politics for over a decade, so the "career politician" label will look a little ridiculous and desperate on him.

    Cain, maybe; although he has an uphill battle to get enough name recognition by Feb. '12. The debates, especially the number of them, will help him the most of any candidate, I think, for this very reason. So far this seems to be his only real problem. Solid conservative ideology. The Florida straw vote win really helps him in the very way he needs help the most.

    Santorum, no; my personal favorite and without a doubt one of the most conservative candidates in the field. Has made no real mistakes so far, so may gain some traction if he can stay in the race long enough. No name recognition, and it hurts him. A signficant portion of what name recognition he does have comes from the gay activist Savage (and thanks to Google), who, as it happens actually is aptly named without anyone having to invent a definition for it. That built in Chris Wallace smirk really hurts him, though, as does the fact he looks about twelve years old.

    Johnson, no; but he came close to getting my vote last debate with a single answer:



    His idea to balance the federal budget "now", would mean lopping off 43% of the federal government come Jan. '12. I don't believe a country this size can reverse course on a dime like that, but maybe you need to start off with that goal just to get it to move at all.

    One thing is clear. whoever is president over the next decade had better leave office with the federal budget in perfect balance, and a drastically reformed and much less progressive tax code in place and operating as designed, or this country is finished as a world power. That's the only prediction I feel strongly about at the present time.

    ---------- Post added at 10:53 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:50 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Vandaler View Post
    I think this prediction is extremely unlikely, and reeks with optimistic enthusiasm.



    But you don't mention that those have only been held 4 times (Ronald Reagan in 1979, George H.W. Bush in 1987 and Bob Dole in 1995) and one of those, Bob Dole, was a notorious loser where it matters.

    Plus, the scope of the victory you are predicting is not realistic, with far to many states flipping.

    He may, I don't know, gain momentum to perhaps win the nomination, but he would still be winning over a lackluster field of candidates. His Achilles heal is in foreign policy where he is surprisingly ignorant, and he don't seem to be surrounded by a strong team of advisers either. In fact, he seems to be poorly surrounded all around, and for someone with no experience, it's a bad Omen.
    None of which seemed to hurt Obama in 2008.

  18. #18
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Since WWII no president has been re-elected with unemployment higher than 7.9%.

    Mitney's Mormonism is a huge obstacle for evangelicals.

    Gingrich and Perry both have high negatives.

    I think the ticket will be Cain/Romney. Failing that, Romney/Cain.

    FYI Johnson stole that line from Limbaugh.

  19. #19
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    His idea to balance the federal budget "now", would mean lopping off 43% of the federal government come Jan. '12. I don't believe a country this size can reverse course on a dime like that, but maybe you need to start off with that goal just to get it to move at all.
    You've got a point, but straight consumer tax has been a dream for a long time now. But that idea is just perfect to a guy who still doesn't approve of the Federal Bank being established in ?1913?, so I may just be too far out of touch with my hopes there.
    There is no wealth like knowledge, no poverty like ignorance.
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  20. #20
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    Re: 2012 Presidential Election Prediction(s)

    Quote Originally Posted by Spartacus View Post
    Since WWII no president has been re-elected with unemployment higher than 7.9%.

    Mitney's Mormonism is a huge obstacle for evangelicals.
    That's the media hype, but I haven't seen it to be the case. I'm an evangelical and most of the evangelicals I know vote on the policies being proposed; not the professed religion of the proposer.

    Gingrich and Perry both have high negatives.
    Besides Gingrich's personal faux pas (multiple divorces, buying expensive jewelry on credit), and the score Dems are still trying to settle with him for leading the impeachment of Clinton (that fuel media animous towards him, but otherwise won't be a factor in the nomination process) what negatives?

    I think the ticket will be Cain/Romney. Failing that, Romney/Cain.

    FYI Johnson stole that line from Limbaugh.
    Really? Well then Rush has got my vote if he decides to run.

    ---------- Post added at 02:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:12 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Lukecash12 View Post
    You've got a point, but straight consumer tax has been a dream for a long time now. But that idea is just perfect to a guy who still doesn't approve of the Federal Bank being established in ?1913?, so I may just be too far out of touch with my hopes there.
    Don't get me wrong. Domestically, there hasn't been a policy change that has been proposed by any of the candidates that I'm not basically for unless they contradict one another. The problem is there are so many things that need fixing they will need to be wisely prioritized or they'll end up doing more short term harm than long term good, and that'll just hand the Dems back the presidency in 2016, which is something this country simply can't afford anymore. As the Iron Maiden once opined, sooner or later you run out of other people's money. We're there, and printing more is just denial.

 

 
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