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  1. #1
    ODN's Crotchety Old Man

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    Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...-prove-it.html

    "The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

    The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

    This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years."

    Discuss

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  3. #2
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    I found it interesting that the period of temperature stability is now the same as the period of temperature increase. Hard to argue one is more significant than the other.
    "Suffering lies not with inequality, but with dependence." -Voltaire
    "Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.” -G.K. Chesterton
    Also, if you think I've overlooked your post please shoot me a PM, I'm not intentionally ignoring you.


  4. #3
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Cool find. The article closes with:

    The most depressing feature of this debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will automatically be labelled a climate change ‘denier’, and accused of jeopardising the future of humanity.

    So let’s be clear. Yes: global warming is real, and some of it at least has been caused by the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. But the evidence is beginning to suggest that it may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed – a conclusion with enormous policy implications.


    I've been saying that for years. But I think the "catastrophists" (love that term btw) are so brainwashed and "doom" is so embedded in their psyche, that the damage may be irreversible.
    -=]Apokalupsis[=-
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  6. #4
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Usually doom cries are wrong, on rare occasion they aren't. Generally the bigger the doom prediction the less accurate they tend to be.

    I think the wise approach is to not utterly dismiss such ideas, but not to count on them either. You instead keep an eye on it, watch and learn, and plan for what you do if it turns out to be true. Climate is important, we depend on it in many ways so we are wise to keep studying, keep watching, and have contingencies. But the sky is not falling any time soon. This data seems pretty convincing but I've learned to take em all with a grain of salt.
    Feed me some debate pellets!

  7. #5
    ODN's Crotchety Old Man

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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Apok - I like "exhaustipated", which is "too tired to give a crap"

    Sig - At least we can count on the Mayans and Dec 21 this year being for real

  8. #6
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    All that reveals is that human-kind are destroying Mother Gaia through global cooling, rather than warming. They were right in the '70s after all. The exact nature of the process is irrelevant, it's the principle.

  9. #7
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    The Daily Mail is a crap source, it's aligned with conservative interests and it's pretty obvious what their viewpoint has always been based on the tone of the article.

    Is the scientific community really giving as much credence to this data as the Daily Mail claims?
    ~Zealous

  10. #8
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Be specific. Where did the Daily Mail go wrong here with their reporting of the research?
    -=]Apokalupsis[=-
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  11. #9
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis View Post
    Be specific. Where did the Daily Mail go wrong here with their reporting of the research?
    Let's get a response from the people who did the study themselves, shall we? The Met Office specifically responded to the Daily Mail article.

    http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2...-october-2012/

    Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit.
    The linear trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail end of a double-dip La Nina) is about 0.03°C/decade, amounting to a temperature increase of 0.05°C over that period, but equally we could calculate the linear trend from 1999, during the subsequent La Nina, and show a more substantial warming.As we’ve stressed before, choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system. If you use a longer period from HadCRUT4 the trend looks very different. For example, 1979 to 2011 shows 0.16°C/decade (or 0.15°C/decade in the NCDC dataset, 0.16°C/decade in GISS). Looking at successive decades over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the 1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade.Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC. However, within this record there have been several periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not unusual.


    And let's take a graph from the Met Office rather than the Daily Mail, and see what we find.



    Tell me, can you really conclusively state that the warming trend has "stopped" in the past 15 years based upon this graph? If you dial back their period just a couple years you can paint a whole different picture!
    ~Zealous

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  13. #10
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Hmm, so you're saying they cherry picked the data? Certainly looks that way doesn't it.

    Now that I think about it, why would anyone use "16-year periods" in which to measure global temperature? Decades or 15-year periods or quarter-centuries seem to make more sense. But I suppose those periods of measurement weren't used because they did not give the Daily Mail the results it was obviously looking for.

    OTOH, maybe it's customary to measure global temperature in 16-year segments. Unless someone can definitively state that it is customary then it seems fairly safe to assume that the Daily Mail simply found a year at which global temperature was exceptionally low and used that as the beginning of their "measurment unit,' which just happened to make their measurement unit 16-years in duration.

  14. #11
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Yup, good find.

    But my statement re: catastrophists still stands. An increase in .05 deg F per decade is hardly cause for the typical rhetoric of the radical leftwing, sky-is-falling sort.
    Last edited by Apokalupsis; October 15th, 2012 at 05:32 PM.
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  15. #12
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Quote Originally Posted by Rodriguez View Post
    Hmm, so you're saying they cherry picked the data? Certainly looks that way doesn't it.
    I can't come to any other conclusion.

    The article is awful.

    Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were ‘deeply flawed’.
    I mean look at that! She wasn't commenting on the data by the Met Office! She wasn't commenting on anything except the computer models used to predict future warming! And yet somehow she "disagreed" with Phil Jones about whether or not 16 years is a valid snapshot of time to draw conclusions from?

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis View Post
    An increase in .05 deg F
    Since when were we talking about Fahrenheit? The data and article are from Britain, we're dealing in Celsius here. That number in Fahrenheit would be more than double.
    ~Zealous

  16. #13
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Quote Originally Posted by ZealousDemon View Post
    Since when were we talking about Fahrenheit? The data and article are from Britain, we're dealing in Celsius here. That number in Fahrenheit would be more than double.
    rofl!

    1) It doesn't matter whether which system we are referring to as it is just language to represent climate temperature...which is what really is being discussed ZD.

    2) I misstated, it isn't .05 F, it's .03 Celsius, per decade.

    So again, I stand by my statement.
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  17. #14
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis View Post
    2) I misstated, it isn't .05 F, it's .03 Celsius, per decade.

    So again, I stand by my statement.
    You shouldn't.

    It's 0.03 Celsius per decade if we use the misleading 2007->2012 time scale.

    Read the data again.

    Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC.


    That's about 0.057 Celsius per decade, which is almost double your 0.03 number.

    Looking at the graph I previously posted, it looks like the trend from 1950->2012 looks to be about 0.1 Celsius per decade.


    1979 to 2011 shows 0.16°C/decade
    So yeah, the actual data suggests a rate that's double to quadruple what you just stated it was.
    ~Zealous

  18. #15
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    The .03C per decade comes from one of the members/contributors of MET in a comment he made. You are saying he's wrong about his study?
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  19. #16
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis View Post
    The .03C per decade comes from one of the members/contributors of MET in a comment he made. You are saying he's wrong about his study?
    No, I'm saying you're wrong about the context of the 0.03C figure.

    Quote Originally Posted by David Britton
    As stated in our response, this is 0.05 degrees Celsius since 1997 equivalent to 0.03 degrees Celsius per decade.


    In other words, this 0.03C per decade figure arises if we use the 1997->2012 period. We already established that using this time period was misleading.

    Come on Apok, you're so focused on trying to prove that liberals are alarmist that you're not even reading the facts that are right in front of you.
    ~Zealous

  20. #17
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Was the title of this thread (and their report) "There has been no Global Warming?" Or was it something more representative of the 21st century?

    The reason why this is relevant is that it is possible that the trend is not maintaining. It's long been understood that climate patterns are cyclical. Catastrophists reject this idea and preach doom and gloom unless billions of dollars are spent at "reversing" the damage. The more objective mind however, will take the fact that a) cycles do exist, b) the primary cause of cycle change is due to nature, not man, and c) the latest trend is worth looking into as it may represent a significant change, thus debunking the claims of all the Chicken Littles out there.

    I'm not buying what you are preaching from the doomsday pulpit in other words.
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  21. #18
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    But you do agree that the conservative Daily Mail seems to have cherry picked data from a MET office report in order to arrive at the conclusion that they wanted to be true, right?

  22. #19
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    It looks that way (re: cherry picking).

    I don't know enough about the Daily Mail to agree that it is a conservative mag however.
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  23. #20
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    Re: Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis View Post
    Was the title of this thread (and their report) "There has been no Global Warming?" Or was it something more representative of the 21st century?
    The title of this thread is "Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago".

    Last time I checked, 1997 was in the 20th century. And saying that it "stopped" in 1997 implies that it was occurring in the 20th century.

    So no, we're talking about the concept of global warming as a whole, not whether or not global warming is significant within the past 12-16 years specifically.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis
    The reason why this is relevant is that it is possible that the trend is not maintaining.
    Saying that it is possible means nothing. It's possible that it's going down. It's possible that it's going to stay flat. It's possible that it may go up exponentially!

    Quote Originally Posted by Apokalupsis
    It's long been understood that climate patterns are cyclical. Catastrophists reject this idea and preach doom and gloom unless billions of dollars are spent at "reversing" the damage. The more objective mind however, will take this fact into account.
    Haven't climate scientists rejected the cyclical argument NOT because they aren't taking it into account, but because cyclical changes occur on much longer time scales and that cyclical patterns cannot account for the relatively much more dramatic rises that we are seeing now?

    I'm not buying what you are preaching from the doomsday pulpit in other words.
    When have I ever preached from the doomsday pulpit?
    ~Zealous

 

 
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