Afghanistan will return to civil war after 2014

[International]

2014 is the year that the majority of the ISAF soldiers will be leaving Afghanistan. It is not yet clear the exact number of US troops that will be staying, though most other members of the ISAF have offered very small numbers of soldiers to remain after the 2014 withdrawal.

I believe that 2014, and especially 2015, will be years of great violence in Afghanistan as extremist groups begin to make bolder moves toward regaining control of territories. A lot of the progress made by the ISAF will be undone in a matter of a few short years. I think that civil war will ensue and that complex social and economic situations will slowly deteriorate the ability of the Afghan government to withstand long-term engagements. Although it may maintain power in major urban areas such as Kabul and Kandahar, I think that within a few short years it will lose a lot of influence in the rural area (which it already struggles with).

Does anybody have a more optimistic outlook on Afghanistan?

[MindTrap028]

I don't have very much hope for any nation in that area, or any nation that the U.S. has engaged in. The timeline is questionable I can see it taking longer, but I think there will be a turning point moment and it will regress quickly. I am a pessimist I suppose. I wish them the best.

[Sigfried]

I think Afghanistan has had something like 10 years of stability in the last 150 years, so its a good bet it will still be unstable after we leave, probably more than it is at the moment.

It would be great if the government there could keep the peace, but I would not bet on it.

I'm not sure there is anything we can truly do to make a country stable. That's something they have to ultimately sort out for themselves. We can't say we didn't try to help, spending a lot of money and a good number of lives.

[International]

Both comments I agree with.

I think it is very hard to take a society that has a totally different social structure and trying to force it to become one nation. I know it has been "done" there in the past. Just like it has been "done" now. But man, tribal ties in Afghanistan are such a big deal it is so difficult to get people to think outside of that, especially in the rural areas. Not that that is a bad thing in itself. However, it can be a bad thing for the people as a whole because without a strong central government in Afghanistan insurgent groups will have so much ease in taking control over huge swathes of territory.

A hearts and minds counter insurgency mission is extremely difficult to accomplish in a place with terrible infrastructure and an extremely complex social history.

[FruitandNut]

I also think the forces of tribalism and radical Islam will relatively quickly fill the power vacuum that will be left after 'you lot and us lot' leave.