
Originally Posted by
CowboyX
What would negative consequences to employment be?
Of the minimum wage? I sincerely hope you are kidding given the length of this thread.
Macroeconomic Evidence
This is a relatively rare phenomenon in economics, but agreement with the claim “Does minimum wage hurt employment of low skilled workers” is about as universal as we can find. Recently, David Neumark (UC Irvine) conducted an environmental scan of the current state of economic research on the minimum wage. He reviewed more than 100 major academic studies (since 1992) and found that 85% of them find a negative effect on employment of low skilled workers.
And Prof. Neumark is not the only economist to have done an environmental scan (a review of all academic literature on a subject) in recent years. Congress did one back in 1995 as well and found that the effects go beyond simply not hiring or letting go. At the margin, where people are retained at the higher income, other pecuniary benefits such as training, time off and working conditions suffered as minimum wages increased.
It will also indicate that the minimum wage has wide-ranging negative effects that go beyond unemployment. For example, higher minimum wages encourage employers to cut back on training, thus depriving low wage workers of an important means of long-term advancement, in return for a small increase in current income.
Scott Sumner has done some excellent work on the data coming out of Europe, where minimum wage laws vary significantly, and data is relatively reliable.
There are nine countries with a minimum wage (Belgium, Netherlands, Britain, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Luxembourg). Their unemployment rates range from 5.9% in Luxembourg to 27.6% in Greece. The median country is France with 11.1% unemployment.
There are nine countries with no minimum wage (Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Austria, Germany, Italy, Switzerland.) Five of the nine have a lower unemployment rate than Luxembourg, the best of the other group. The median country is Iceland, with a 5.5% unemployment rate. The biggest country in Europe is Germany. No minimum wage and 5.2% unemployment.
Conclusion
So what does all this economic babble mean? I’ll make it brutally simple. If you support a minimum wage, you support hurting the lowest skilled workers in our economy (generally young minorities) in favor of those who are more moderately skilled. You prevent them from getting a foot on the economic ladder. You prevent them from competing with those who can spend money towards their personal capital.
To use an illustration, generally, you are limiting the options for a young black female and helping a middle income white male (which incidentally, it was originally designed to do).
There are plenty of other moral issues with the minimum wage as well, but I think we can start with these.
...
First, Prof. David Neumark of UC Irvine did an environmental scan. This is a procedure where economists (it is also done in other fields like medicine) do a scan of all peer reviewed literature on a subject and attempt to see what the state of the discussion is. Sometimes these types of scans will also use the underlying data sets to do a meta study of the data presented. These types of meta-studies are often far more powerful (in the statistical sense) and accurate for underlying causation. Prof. Neumark did both types of scans during this study.
He has two major findings:
1) 85% of all economic studies find a strong negative correlation between minimum wage increases and minority employment rates.
2) A 10% increase in minimum wage reduces minority employment by 3.9%. That number is composed primarily of teenagers (drop of 6.6%). Blacks suffer the most (-2.8%) and especially black teenagers (-8.4%).
His full study was linked in my OP, but for convenience here it is again: http://www.epionline.org/studies/Neumark_2007.pdf
I would specifically point you to table 5 on page 28. This table shows employment elasticity for different groups. You'll notice that those who are younger and a minority (or with low training like a High school drop out) have negative elasticity, meaning that they lose jobs as minimum wage increases. In turn, you'll notice that older, non-minority groups have a positive elasticity, meaning they do get jobs when the minimum wage increases.
So to re-emphasize my conclusion. Increases to the minimum wage (or whatever wage mandating solution you are discussing) benefits older, whiter people at the expense of younger minorities.
The second study I offered was conducted by Congress and studied older economic data (pre-Neumark study). These papers generally also support the notion that minimum wage increases negatively impact the ability of minorities and the young to get employment. They highlight exactly how unique are Card and Kreuger's findings. I would like to post the analysis of the major papers they used:
• The minimum wage reduces employment.
Currie and Fallick (1993), Gallasch (1975), Gardner (1981), Peterson (1957), Peterson and Stewart (1969).
• The minimum wage reduces employment more among teenagers than adults.
Adie (1973); Brown, Gilroy and Kohen (1981a, 1981b); Fleisher (1981); Hammermesh (1982); Meyer and Wise (1981, 1983a); Minimum Wage Study Commission (1981); Neumark and Wascher (1992); Ragan (1977); Vandenbrink (1987); Welch (1974, 1978); Welch and Cunningham (1978).
• The minimum wage reduces employment most among black teenage males.
Al-Salam, Quester, and Welch (1981), Iden (1980), Mincer (1976), Moore (1971), Ragan (1977), Williams (1977a, 1977b).
• The minimum wage helped South African whites at the expense of blacks.
Bauer (1959).
• The minimum wage hurts blacks generally.
Behrman, Sickles and Taubman (1983); Linneman (1982).
• The minimum wage hurts the unskilled.
Krumm (1981).
• The minimum wage hurts low wage workers.
Brozen (1962), Cox and Oaxaca (1986), Gordon (1981).
• The minimum wage hurts low wage workers particularly during cyclical downturns.
Kosters and Welch (1972), Welch (1974).
• The minimum wage increases job turnover.
Hall (1982).
• The minimum wage reduces average earnings of young workers.
Meyer and Wise (1983b).
• The minimum wage drives workers into uncovered jobs, thus lowering wages in those sectors.
Brozen (1962), Tauchen (1981), Welch (1974).
• The minimum wage reduces employment in low-wage industries, such as retailing.
Cotterman (1981), Douty (1960), Fleisher (1981), Hammermesh (1981), Peterson (1981).
• The minimum wage hurts small businesses generally.
Kaun (1965).
• The minimum wage causes employers to cut back on training.
Hashimoto (1981, 1982), Leighton and Mincer (1981), Ragan (1981).
• The minimum wage has long-term effects on skills and lifetime earnings.
Brozen (1969), Feldstein (1973).
• The minimum wage leads employers to cut back on fringe benefits.
McKenzie (1980), Wessels (1980).
• The minimum wage encourages employers to install labor-saving devices.
Trapani and Moroney (1981).
• The minimum wage hurts low-wage regions, such as the South and rural areas.
Colberg (1960, 1981), Krumm (1981).
• The minimum wage increases the number of people on welfare.
Brandon (1995), Leffler (1978).
• The minimum wage hurts the poor generally.
Stigler (1946).
• The minimum wage does little to reduce poverty.
Bonilla (1992), Brown (1988), Johnson and Browning (1983), Kohen and Gilroy (1981), Parsons (1980), Smith and Vavrichek (1987).
• The minimum wage helps upper income families.
Bell (1981), Datcher and Loury (1981), Johnson and Browning (1981), Kohen and Gilroy (1981).
• The minimum wage helps unions.
Linneman (1982), Cox and Oaxaca (1982).
• The minimum wage lowers the capital stock.
McCulloch (1981).
• The minimum wage increases inflationary pressure.
Adams (1987), Brozen (1966), Gramlich (1976), Grossman (1983).
• The minimum wage increases teenage crime rates.
Hashimoto (1987), Phillips (1981).
• The minimum wage encourages employers to hire illegal aliens.
Beranek (1982).
• Few workers are permanently stuck at the minimum wage.
Brozen (1969), Smith and Vavrichek (1992).
• The minimum wage has had a massive impact on unemployment in Puerto Rico.
Freeman and Freeman (1991), Rottenberg (1981b).
• The minimum wage has reduced employment in foreign countries.
Canada: Forrest (1982); Chile: Corbo (1981); Costa Rica: Gregory (1981); France: Rosa (1981).
• Characteristics of minimum wage workers
Employment Policies Institute (1994), Haugen and Mellor (1990), Kniesner (1981), Mellor (1987), Mellor and Haugen (1986), Smith and Vavrichek (1987), Van Giezen (1994).

Originally Posted by
Cowboy
And sure there's a moral argument.
Ok, to get the thread back to the point, what is the moral argument for the minimum wage?
Bookmarks