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  1. #1
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    Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Who will be the Republican candidate for U.S. President in 2016? (I.e., who will win the Republican nomination at the Republican National Convention in 2016?)

    My guess right now is:

    Rand Paul (20% chance)
    Marco Rubio (20% chance)
    Ted Cruz (33% chance)

    Rand Paul is somewhat marginalized by his extreme libertarian views (extreme in comparison to the moderate Republicans the RNC has fielded in the last few elections), sometimes referred to as being "socially liberal" (anti-drug war, etc.)

    Marco Rubio is somewhat marginalized by his anti-establishment views on immigration (pro-amnesty, as Sarah Palin would put it).

    Ted Cruz is strong on immigration (i.e., takes the standard Republican party line) and a social conservative. I think Cruz currently has the strongest change at securing a GOP nomination in 2016.

    Worth mentioning is Chris Christie, but his troubles with pro-Obama messaging is a weakness in a field of diehard anti-Democrat rivals, and the NJ bridge scandal hurts his electability (although how much the RNC cares about electability remains to be seen).
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
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  2. #2
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    I don't know why Cruz gets such a high score - he'll certainly rally the base but the more moderate Republicans will likely understand that he stands no chance in winning a general election. How do you think we ended up with the rather bland Romney vs the others?

  3. #3
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by JimJones8934 Hidden Content
    I don't know why Cruz gets such a high score - he'll certainly rally the base but the more moderate Republicans will likely understand that he stands no chance in winning a general election. How do you think we ended up with the rather bland Romney vs the others?
    Other than being a Republican who probably disagrees with you on a lot of issues, what do you think makes Cruz unelectable?
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
    **** you, I won't do what you tell me

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  4. #4
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    Other than being a Republican who probably disagrees with you on a lot of issues, what do you think makes Cruz unelectable?
    He still carries the taint of shutting the government down. His ludicrous impression of Churchill. His Tea Party credentials and all that it encompasses will be brought to bear against him.

    ObamaCare, his primary rallying cry, becomes more and more impossible to repeal on a daily basis, its successes reported weekly, and its problems not unsurmountable and certainly not requiring a massive rethink (not that there has been much rethinking beyond repealing every word). By the time 2016 comes around, even if premiums go up, people should be getting rebates back if the money isn't spent on medical care, and if it is then its hard to argue that people aren't getting value for money. We will have had 3 years of Red State statistics vs Blue State statistics regarding the decision around expanding medicaid roles and we will have similar comparisons on insurance coverage in general. None of those numbers are looking like they're going to make his signature lack of achievement in this Presidency any more possible or palatable in his own.

    He is already as polarizing a figure as Obama turned into; and we know much more about him than we did about Obama, and he is just not well liked - most people have already made a decision about him. I'm not even entirely convinced the traditional middle-of-the-road Republicans like him too much either: I think they'll start reflecting on the politics of destruction, oppression and war that Cruz and his ilk seem to thrive on; and choose someone more in line with middle America. It could be Jeb, if he runs, and I believe that Christie still has a chance but it will have to be someone who can demonstrate that they can control the Tea Party caucus, which currently few of the GOP leadership seems to be capable of. And it is this skill that will define the next Republican leader.
    Last edited by JimJones8934; April 22nd, 2014 at 07:25 PM.

  5. #5
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by JimJones8934 Hidden Content
    He still carries the taint of shutting the government down.
    In your eyes, certainly, but what about the general public?

    His ludicrous impression of Churchill.
    ...uh, what?

    His Tea Party credentials and all that it encompasses will be brought to bear against him.
    Tea Party candidates have won many elections. I assume you'd never vote for anyone associated with the Tea Party, but what about the general public?

    ObamaCare, his primary rallying cry, becomes more and more impossible to repeal on a daily basis, its successes reported weekly, and its problems not unsurmountable and certainly not requiring a massive rethink (not that there has been much rethinking beyond repealing every word). By the time 2016 comes around, even if premiums go up, people should be getting rebates back if the money isn't spent on medical care, and if it is then its hard to argue that people aren't getting value for money. We will have had 3 years of Red State statistics vs Blue State statistics regarding the decision around expanding medicaid roles and we will have similar comparisons on insurance coverage in general. None of those numbers are looking like they're going to make his signature lack of achievement in this Presidency any more possible or palatable in his own.
    This reads like a DNC press release, not a fact-based analysis. What makes you think opposing Obamacare is a negative when it comes to electability?

    He is already as polarizing a figure as Obama turned into; and we know much more about him than we did about Obama, and he is just not well liked - most people have already made a decision about him. I'm not even entirely convinced the traditional middle-of-the-road Republicans like him too much either: I think they'll start reflecting on the politics of destruction, oppression and war that Cruz and his ilk seem to thrive on; and choose someone more in line with middle America. It could be Jeb, if he runs, and I believe that Christie still has a chance but it will have to be someone who can demonstrate that they can control the Tea Party caucus, which currently few of the GOP leadership seems to be capable of. And it is this skill that will define the next Republican leader.
    All of this seems based on the idea that "middle America" is a lot like you, JimJones8934.

    "Who would you personally vote to run for President?" is a much different question than "Who will win the Republican primaries?"

    You seem to be focused on the former.
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
    **** you, I won't do what you tell me

    HOLY CRAP MY BLOG IS AWESOME

  6. #6
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    I can't really pick myself until I've seen/heard some of these gents. Kudos though for an early step in to the big prediction game!

    As to Cruz Lets put it like this...

    Whomever the republicans put forward must get the vote of at least some of those who voted for Obama in order to win in 2016. Can Cruz do that?
    Feed me some debate pellets!

  7. #7
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    In your eyes, certainly, but what about the general public?
    I think the Tea Party days are waning as a political force.


    ...uh, what?
    Hidden Content


    Tea Party candidates have won many elections. I assume you'd never vote for anyone associated with the Tea Party, but what about the general public?
    They have indeed and exactly what have they wrought and what do they really stand for? But I'm not even sure the Tea Party will get to play ball if the GOP has their way to cut their funding.

    This reads like a DNC press release, not a fact-based analysis. What makes you think opposing Obamacare is a negative when it comes to electability?
    When the millions of people that have insurance and they end up liking their insurance after all won't take repeal as an answer. Don't forget Cruz's stance is to repeal every word.


    All of this seems based on the idea that "middle America" is a lot like you, JimJones8934.
    I doubt it! I'm anti-gun, nearly all Americans are pro-gun. I'm an atheist, 90% of Americans are pro-religion. I am not quite a pacifist but would like all other options exhausted before going to war. I'm pro legalization of Marijuana even though I don't use it. And so on. I don't think I represent middle America very well at all.


    "Who would you personally vote to run for President?" is a much different question than "Who will win the Republican primaries?"
    You seem to be focused on the former.
    I'm answering your question but the other two choices, as well as my own are more in line with the kind of person who gets chosen eventually. Note the other bullets we dodged in the last election: Bachmann (rabid tea partier), Ron Paul (enough said), Santorum (too overtly religious), the Pizza Company owner, the short fat guy. The only other sensible person, the Texan who's name I don't recall and Huntsman, who seemed pretty sensible but maybe too boring.

    And if the GOP end up blocking a Tea Party candidate in the same way they continue to block Ron Paul (thankfully), then there isn't going to be much of a chance for someone like Cruz to make it.

    It may be that you're seeing something in Cruz that I don't but I little in him and his brand that really appeals to anyone beyond the core Tea Party base he spawns from. Plus his lips are always seeming slimy and wet. He's disgusting.

  8. #8
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by Sigfried Hidden Content
    Whomever the republicans put forward must get the vote of at least some of those who voted for Obama in order to win in 2016. Can Cruz do that?
    I think that'll come down to messaging. If he's put forward, he'll get hit hard from the Left for being the worst of both cold-hearted Libertarians and judgmental Conservatives.

    His best bet would probably be to focus on policy rather than running on his own personal charisma/appeal. Repealing unpopular portions of Obamacare, attacking Big Pharma & the surveillance state, getting money out of politics, etc.

    ---------- Post added at 09:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 PM ----------

    It may be that you're seeing something in Cruz that I don't but I little in him and his brand that really appeals to anyone beyond the core Tea Party base he spawns from.


    No, I think you're just projecting your politics on middle America.

    Plus his lips are always seeming slimy and wet. He's disgusting.
    Wow, racist much?
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
    **** you, I won't do what you tell me

    HOLY CRAP MY BLOG IS AWESOME

  9. #9
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    Repealing unpopular portions of Obamacare,
    You do realize that he hasn't deviated from repealing every last word of ObamaCare? How are you expecting him to be walk that back?

    No, I think you're just projecting your politics on middle America.
    Then I'm betting the chances of him getting the nomination are 10%.

    Wow, racist much?
    How's that racist? He's a slimy toad so its probably speciesist, but racist?

  10. #10
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by JimJones8934
    Then I'm betting the chances of him getting the nomination are 10%.
    Who are your top 3 likely Republican nominees and what odds do you give them?

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by JimJones8934 Hidden Content
    How's that racist? He's a slimy toad so its probably speciesist, but racist?
    Mostly it was a joke about how liberal pundits always claim that conservative statements are racist "dog whistles"--they pass a cursory inspection, but are packed with a hidden meaning that resonates with racists.

    Saying a Cuban looks "wet"? Racist.
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
    **** you, I won't do what you tell me

    HOLY CRAP MY BLOG IS AWESOME

  11. #11
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    Who are your top 3 likely Republican nominees and what odds do you give them?
    Jeb Bush: 50%
    Chris Christie: 30%
    Rand Paul: 20%



    Saying a Cuban looks "wet"? Racist.
    Which reminds me - he's not even natively American. Doesn't he have American/Cuban/Canadian citizenship?!

  12. #12
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by JimJones8934 Hidden Content
    Jeb Bush: 50%
    Chris Christie: 30%
    Rand Paul: 20%
    Interesting, what gives Jeb Bush the edge in your estimation?

    Which reminds me - he's not even natively American. Doesn't he have American/Cuban/Canadian citizenship?!
    The children of U.S. citizens are U.S. citizens at birth. How does having multiple citizenship affect whether he was American at birth?
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
    **** you, I won't do what you tell me

    HOLY CRAP MY BLOG IS AWESOME

  13. #13
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    Interesting, what gives Jeb Bush the edge in your estimation?
    The elusive Hispanic vote; I don't think the whole 'act of love' statement was done unintentionally. It's probably signaling the GOP operatives to see how well that would play out before he makes a final bid. And he's the only moderate Republican around these days; which has to be a relief for those Republicans that are sick of the Tea Party and far right garbage they've had to hold their nose voting for just to keep their party in power.

    The children of U.S. citizens are U.S. citizens at birth. How does having multiple citizenship affect whether he was American at birth?
    It doesn't - I can't pull off the Birther reasoning process too well.

  14. #14
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by JimJones
    The elusive Hispanic vote; I don't think the whole 'act of love' statement was done unintentionally. It's probably signaling the GOP operatives to see how well that would play out before he makes a final bid. And he's the only moderate Republican around these days; which has to be a relief for those Republicans that are sick of the Tea Party and far right garbage they've had to hold their nose voting for just to keep their party in power.
    The RNC does love a good moderate-to-liberal Republican, but you don't think their experience with McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 will lead them to seek a different electoral strategy?

    It doesn't - I can't pull off the Birther reasoning process too well.
    You're saying you were being ironic?
    If I am capable of grasping God objectively, I do not believe, but precisely because I cannot do this I must believe. - Soren Kierkegaard
    **** you, I won't do what you tell me

    HOLY CRAP MY BLOG IS AWESOME

  15. #15
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    The RNC does love a good moderate-to-liberal Republican, but you don't think their experience with McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 will lead them to seek a different electoral strategy?
    Perhaps. If there are sufficient numbers of the rabid base that would overcome whatever corresponding losses, it would matter less. There's still a bit of an internal civil war going on in GOP that makes that a little unlikely.

    Going full Tea Party would certainly make for interesting debates though it would just be humiliating for America as Palin was. Still, if Clinton runs, she will likely win so perhaps this might be a good time to try that route, if only to prove that there is no place for them.

  16. #16
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    Hidden Content Originally Posted by CliveStaples Hidden Content
    Who will be the Republican candidate for U.S. President in 2016? (I.e., who will win the Republican nomination at the Republican National Convention in 2016?)
    Bobby Jindal or Jeb Bush. Jindal will have conservative support, and Bush will have establishment money and organization.
    Last edited by evensaul; April 23rd, 2014 at 08:50 AM.
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  17. #17
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    Re: Republican Presidential Candidate 2016

    I'll very tentatively go for a Jeb Bush pick for now. You can't win election with people who aren't essentially moderate and the GOP party leaders know that.

    However... if the more conservative element can get control, then he may not make it to nomination. Still, I tend to play the safe bet that the same people will largely make the same kinds of decisions and the pattern is you get a GOP candidate acceptable to middle america and that means "compassionate conservatism" type angling and Jeb does that pretty well. Also, simply being "connected" is a potent weapon in presidential elections. It gets you a range of allies and you need a lot of those to get nominated.

    The strong conservatives have the places they are strong locked up tight, but they are isolated strongholds and outside of those they are often very much the minority compared to the more moderate or outright liberal combined. So they rock the house in the solid red states but don't swing that hard in a national election. (aka its better to have 51% of the vote in two states than 90% in one and 30% in the other)

    Though if he won that would be a hell of a dynastic choice.

    Of course on the Dem side Hillary is the safe bet right now, the only serious name anyone's got. If she does take it, like Obama before her, there is a pent up demand for what she represents demographically. AKA she will get votes from folks looking to see the first woman president. People like being part of history once they hit the general election.

    So I'm thinking she takes the prize by the now familiar very narrow victory.
    Feed me some debate pellets!

 

 

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