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  1. #81
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by evensaul View Post
    Doesn't refute that younger people not entering the workforce (ie don't find a job after school) and those dropping out of the workforce NOT due to age have a much greater impact than aged retirees. It all amounts to a non-recovery of the labor market under Obama's watch. His policies have failed to improve employment.
    Until you show what amount of the population is dropping out of the workforce for lack of opportunity you won't know what impact it does or doesn't have. All you posted was a total number of those in the workforce as not, you haven't shown who they are, or why they are dropping out. I provided one actual documented segment that is leaving the workforce for entirely normal reasons along with another who are educating themselves rather than going to work immediately. What specifics have you shown so far?

    Which is all irrelevant to employment numbers during Obama's watch. If anything, those numbers prove that Obama has failed to increase college enrollment with a capital F, because enrollment has been declining since he took office.
    Irreverent. The evidence you provided had a baseline of 1977 as the last time they were this low. (hint, they were lower before that) Since that time more kids go to colledge and there are far more elderly who are generally retired. That means naturally we will see declines in employment participation whatever the opportunities available.

    If you go and look at labor force participation graphs you will notice two things.
    1. There has been a steady drop off since the late 1990s
    2. There is a much sharper drop off starting in 2007 (when the "great recession" hit)

    AKA this started before Obama ever took office and is part of an overall trend. Its been predicted long before now due to the demographic trends but clearly the economic down turn made it worse.
    Between 2007 and 2014 the prime working age cohort 25-54 years old went from 79.7% of the us population to 77.2% a decrease of 2.5% During that time labor force participation dropped from 66 to about 62.7 a drop of 3.2%. So if you factor out the demographics your looking at around .7% or so drop. Its something but far from some massive shift, not a shocker considering we had the second largest economic downturn in American history.
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  2. #82
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by evensaul View Post
    Your argument just isn't very convincing. For example, having it publicly known that the Joint Chiefs of Staff are covertly undermining Obama's stated goal of removing al-Assad will never be considered anything other than a failure of his leadership and his foreign policy.
    Publicly known covert operations??? Who's argument isn't very convincing?
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  3. #83
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd View Post
    Whenever a graph's origin isn't zero, then I become suspicious. You are looking at swings of +/- 3%. So, I don't think you can claim the rise/fall is dramatic.
    I simply used Fred's default Y axis range. Usually, both the range and the question of whether or not 3% is dramatic or not depends on the standard deviation of the metric over a relevant time period. The standard deviation of the data from 1990 to 2007 (the period with 0 slope) is about 0.4%. The standard deviation remains the same from 2007 to 2015, but the slope is negative. An overall change of 3% when the standard deviation of the data is about 0.4% is pretty dramatic. The difference in the two relative slopes is beyond just chance or white noise.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd
    To your point, though, it does not look like retirement is driving the numbers as Sig suggested. But, his argument is that more kids are going to college, lowering the participation rate of young people.
    Yeah, I forgot to respond to that point yesterday, thanks. There would be a couple issues with that argument. That more kids are in college could well be a result of a poor economic situation, that MBAs and recessions are tied is generally no secret.

    Sig definitely has a point that college enrollment continued to increase during this period. I have a couple of problems with assigning that any significant portion of the explanation though.

    The first is that the population decreased between 2011 and 2015 (most recent data), so the 1% of loss that occurred in the participation rate during that period can't be explained via college enrollment. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/college...-in-2011-1776/


    The second is that it also increased from 1992 to 2002 and we saw zero decrease in the labor participation rate of that age group.

    So we can say that a 15% increase in the population enrolled in college is insufficient to explain any measurable change in the labor participation rate. Additionally, we can see that the two categories (labor force participation and education) are not mutually exclusive, so an increase in one might not affect the other at all


    Third, the volume of actual people is too small to make a real noticeable difference in the labor force participation rate.

    From 2002 to 2012 it increased by an additional 9% (above the historic rate), equating to about 1.5M students.
    But the vast, vast bulk of those students are between 18 and 23, but our labor force participation rate is 25 to 54. There are several estimates out there, but college enrollment of greater than 25 and older is generally 20-25% of the college population. 60% of the growth noted is in full time students, with the 40% part time largely not affecting the participation rate (see the point above for that data).

    So given all that, at most, we can say that only 225,000 of the labor force drop is due to students.


    The labor force participation rate during that period fell by about 2%, from 83.5% to 81.5%, representing about 2,279,000 drop in the labor force of that group.

    So that means that the students account for at most 9.8% of the labor force participation drop.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd
    So, maybe you both have valid points and maybe Obama isn't the oracle of Oahu nor is he the butcher of wall street. Perhaps, like his galactic predecessor, Zaphod Beeblebrox, he's just this guy, ya know?
    Well I should note that I didn't lay this at President Obama's feet. I simply pointed out that the shift in participation is likely not a primarily demographic change. That said, I would argue that continued incentive shifts away from work and regulatory cost increase is definitely a driving force behind this shift. That it is far more expensive to hire an employee today than it was 15 years ago and that workers generally have more disincentives towards employment are clearly drivers of this change.

    When people blame President Obama I think they are falling victim to the same bias we accuse protectionists of falling victim to. They assign it to him because he is visible, a figurehead of sorts. It isn't as if he is actually writing the regulations or even proposing them (aside from a few large ones), it is more that he is a stand in for an ideology of continued intervention and intervention to solve the problems caused by intervention. The same bureaucracies were bloating the regulatory code under both President Bushes and Presidents Clinton and Reagan. They generally act regardless of the ideology of the elected official. The difference is (imo) that this one generally agrees with it at a level his predecessors didn't.
    "Suffering lies not with inequality, but with dependence." -Voltaire
    "Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.” -G.K. Chesterton
    Also, if you think I've overlooked your post please shoot me a PM, I'm not intentionally ignoring you.


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  5. #84
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    My main point was to say that Obama policies can't be seen as the primary driver of labor participation due to the other demographic and social trends as well as the fact it was on the decline long before he came into office. You can say he failed to change that around, but since the demographic forces are pretty large, that would be something of a miracle. Judging only by looking at the past trends before and during his presidency he seems to have had little to no impact on it at all. I can see that being called a failure, but its not how his opponents express it.

    I consider Obama a success. I'm bias since I voted for him twice. But I know a lot of folks who did and who are very supportive of him. He's not done much to piss off his constituency and he's done a fair bit to bolster them. The right predicted we'd be in a world war, or have an economic collapse, or destroy the constitution, or take everyone's guns etc... None of that has happened (baring people's hyperbole) The economy is at least superficially good, gas is cheap, many parts of the country are booming, very little of it is collapsing (even Detroit is turning a corner). Considering we were looking at most of our banks and auto makers failing 7 years ago and stock market collapse were doing pretty good. My house sold for 40% more than I bought it before the collapse. During this time I've seen gay people get the respect they deserve (not due to Obama but he's not stood in the way of it). Personally I think Obamacare is pretty decent, its been good for me and many others. Its not awesome, but its a start and at least it was an attempt to address serious problems.

    Foreign policy has been a problem but by and large we've not actively ****ed anything up. Obama actually did what we set out to do after 9/11 and bring the architect of it to justice as well as capture the leader of the nation we went to war with. He has not been effective in making the Middle east any better, but neither do I feel he's made it any worse. The mistakes we made were done during Bush. Invading Iraq was really stupid and has given rise to a fair amount of our problems. The only real beneficiaries are the Kurds (and good for them). All together though we have had a lot less Americans die from foreign attacks or in foreign lands under Obama than Bush. He has kept us safer. The middle east is ****, but honestly those aren't places he's responsible for controlling. We'd like him to do better, but the "solutions" the right wing tends to suggest are the kinds of things that got us into this mess and they offer little to no solution to it other than lets go fight and die some more to show em who is more awesome at killing people. Among the worlds population Obama is the most popular world leader and we are the most loved country. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dat...ings-worldwide

    Finally Obama is a stand up guy. We don't have any sex in the oval office, no political scandals, no vomiting on foreign leaders, no black box torturing of people or making dogie sex videos in federal run prisons etc... Not to mention no one has blown up any sky scrapers. He has a great family and he exhibits upstanding moral and civil behavior. A great example for Americans to follow and even his political opponents acknowledge this. I trust a man who treats his family like gold and the fact he treats others well and civilly is a big bonus. If more people followed his lead this would be a much better world.
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  6. #85
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by Squatch347 View Post
    Well I should note that I didn't lay this at President Obama's feet. I simply pointed out that the shift in participation is likely not a primarily demographic change. That said, I would argue that continued incentive shifts away from work and regulatory cost increase is definitely a driving force behind this shift. That it is far more expensive to hire an employee today than it was 15 years ago and that workers generally have more disincentives towards employment are clearly drivers of this change.

    When people blame President Obama I think they are falling victim to the same bias we accuse protectionists of falling victim to. They assign it to him because he is visible, a figurehead of sorts. It isn't as if he is actually writing the regulations or even proposing them (aside from a few large ones), it is more that he is a stand in for an ideology of continued intervention and intervention to solve the problems caused by intervention. The same bureaucracies were bloating the regulatory code under both President Bushes and Presidents Clinton and Reagan. They generally act regardless of the ideology of the elected official. The difference is (imo) that this one generally agrees with it at a level his predecessors didn't.
    And I think this is a fair assessment. However, it is a far cry from the OP's claim that Obama's Presidency is a failed one. First and foremost, you have basically conceded that the economy has shifted in a manner that is consistent with Obama's ideology. As such, it would not unreasonable to suggest his Presidency was a huge success (just dependent upon the side of the fence you happen to sit). Overall, though, you are kind of echoing my main point.
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  7. #86
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    "Tonight President Obama will deliver his final State of the Union address, which the White House says will refrain from the usual "laundry list" of new proposals. That's probably a smart strategy, based on how successfully he's delivered on past State of the Union promises.

    Looking back, the numbers aren't pretty. From 2009 through 2015, Grabien counts 140 promises that remain unfulfilled.

    We should note that many of these promises are duplicated from one year to another. For example, almost every year he has pledged to pass comprehensive immigration reform, overhaul corporate taxes, reduce regulations, and close Guantanamo Bay.

    Don’t have time to read all 140? Here are some of the most notable:

    Curing cancer (promised 2009, 2010, 2015)
    Freezing government spending for three years (2010) and five years (2011)
    Colonizing outer space (2015)
    Going “line by line” through the budget, eliminating needless programs (2009, 2010)
    Inventing “material thinner than paper but stronger than steel” (2014)
    Passing health reform that will let Americans keep their insurance (2010)
    Converting sunlight into liquid fuel (2015)
    Passing comprehensive immigration reform (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014)
    Closing Gitmo (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
    Ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (2014)
    Passing a law that will prevent mass shootings (2014)
    Keeping earlier promises he’s already made (2013)

    The full list is below. Montage above. Did we miss anything? Let us know in the comments.

    2009

    1. The stimulus bill will create 3.5 million jobs over the next few years, 90 percent of which will be in the private sector.

    2. Create program that will enable Americans facing foreclosure to lower their mortgage payments and save their homes.

    3. Double the supply of renewable energy within the next three years.

    4. The “largest ever” federal spending program on science will yield breakthroughs in energy, medicine, science, and technology.

    5. Lay down 1,000s of miles of power lines to connect Americans’ homes to these new sources of energy.

    6. Reduce Americans’ energy bills by “billions of dollars.”

    7. Cure cancer “in our time.”

    8. Use stimulus funds to spend on preventive health care, which will get federal health spending “under control.”

    9. Use the savings that result from the stimulus’ reform of health-care to reduce the deficit.

    10. Cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term in office.

    11. Go “line by line” through the federal budget to eliminate wasteful and ineffective programs – saving $2 trillion over the next 10 years.

    12. Never raise taxes “a single dime” on any family earning less than $250,000.

    13. Stop the growing cost of Medicare and Social Security.

    14. Make Social Security sustainable.

    15. Create tax-free savings accounts for all Americans.

    16. Close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay.


    2010

    17. Use stimulus funds to build a high-speed railway in Florida.

    18. Research funds from the previous year’s stimulus will cure cancer, lead to “the cheapest solar cells.”

    19. Building a new generation of nuclear energy plants.

    20. Passing a climate-change law that will make clean energy profitable

    21. Passing health-reform that lets Americans keep their doctors and their plans.

    22. The health-reform law will reduce costs for “millions” of families and businesses

    23. The health-reform law will bring down the deficit $1 trillion over the next 20 years.

    24. Starting in 2011, government spending “will be frozen for three years.”

    25. Cut programs we don’t need to maintain a balanced budget.

    26. Veto spending bills that don’t adhere to balanced budgeting.

    27. Go through budget “line by line” to eliminate programs that we can’t afford and don’t work.

    28. Create a bipartisan fiscal commission; the recommendations of which he’ll enact.

    29. Restore the pay-as-you-go budgeting rules.

    30. Create a website that publishes every lawmakers’ earmark requests.

    31. Never give up “trying to change the tone of our politics.”

    32. Pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill.

    33. Secure America’s borders.

    34. Enforce existing immigration laws

    35. Create pathway to citizenship


    2011

    36. More nuclear power, more natural gas, more wind and solar.

    37. Pass comprehensive immigration reform.

    38. Secure America’s borders.

    39. Enforce existing immigration laws.

    40. Create pathway to citizenship.

    41. Reduce unemployment by increasing the number of people working on infrastructure projects – ensuring these projects are “fully paid for.”

    42. Recruit private sector financing to assist these infrastructure projects.

    43. Projects will be prioritized by importance, not by politics.

    44. Give 85 percent of Americans access to high-speed rail within 25 years.

    45. Within the next three years, enable 98 percent of Americans to receive high-speed wireless Internet.

    46. Lower the corporate tax rate and eliminate loopholes.

    47. Reduce business regulations restraining growth and investment.

    48. Starting this year, freeze domestic spending for the next five years.

    49. ObamaCare will slow rising costs of health-insurance premiums.

    50. Enact medical malpractice tort reform.

    51. Consolidate various federal departments to streamline federal bureaucracy and ensure it’s “more competent and more efficient.”

    52. Create website that lists all federal spending.

    53. Veto every bill that contains earmarks.


    2012

    54. Reduce corporate income taxes.

    55. Consolidate federal jobs-training programs – creating a single website that makes all information about these programs available in one place.

    56. Convert federal unemployment insurance into a system that focuses on finding the unemployed jobs.

    57. Enact comprehensive immigration reform.

    58. Force all high schools to require students to stay in school until they graduate or turn 18.

    59. Open more than 75 percent of offshore U.S. territory to drilling.

    60. Go “all out” on every type of energy.

    61. Take “every possible action” to expand natural gas production.

    62. Ordering “every federal agency to eliminate rules that don’t make sense.”

    63. Create “financial crimes unit” to crack down on white-collar crime.

    64. Work with Congress to procure power to consolidate federal bureaucracy.

    65. “End the notion that political parties must be engaged in a perpetual campaign of mutual destruction.”


    2013

    66. Reform Medicare and Medicaid to save as much as was proposed by the Simpson-Bowles Commission.

    67. “Reduce taxpayer subsidies to prescription drug companies.”

    68. Raise taxes on the wealthiest seniors.

    69. Bring down health-care costs by changing the way the federal government pays for Medicare.

    70. Eliminate loopholes and deductions for the “well off.”

    71. Enact comprehensive tax reform that brings down the deficit and encourages job growth.

    72. Cut “red tape and speed up new oil and gas permits.”

    73. Create an “energy security trust.”

    74. Create a “fix it first” program that will direct the unemployed to the highest priority programs.

    75. Make “high quality” preschool available to every child in America.

    76. Require that aid to colleges be distributed according to the value they impart upon students.

    77. Pass comprehensive immigration reform.

    78. Raise the minimum wage to $9/hour.

    79. Create a tax incentive for companies to hire the long-term unemployed.

    80. Create a program to put people back to work by rebuilding vacant homes in rundown neighborhoods.

    81. Enact new tax credits for businesses that hire and invest.

    82. Eliminate the marriage penalty for low-income couples.

    83. Encourage fatherhood through tax policy adjustments.

    84. By the end of 2014, end the war in Afghanistan.

    85. Never make promises the government can’t actually keep.

    86. Keep the promises already made.


    2014

    87. Lower corporate income taxes, close loopholes.

    88. Use the money saved from corporate tax reform to finance new infrastructure spending.

    89. Slash bureaucracy through executive orders.

    90. Create an additional six “high tech manufacturing hubs” in 2014.

    91. “Do more” to help entrepreneurs and small business owners.

    92. Use government research funds to create entirely new industries – like vaccines that adapt to evolving bacteria, and inventing material thinner than paper but stronger than steel.

    93. Pass a patent reform bill.

    94. Use executive orders to cut red tape to enable factories to be built that are powered by natural gas.

    95. Reform taxes so that fossil fuel companies are taxed more and “fuels of the future” are taxed less.

    96. Enact new fuel-efficiency standards for trucks.

    97. Pass comprehensive immigration reform.

    98. Consolidate federal jobs training programs, helping match people with skills to jobs they can fill.

    99. Reform unemployment insurance to encourage Americans to return to the workforce faster.

    100. Assemble a coalition to help more kids access pre-K education.

    101. Pass the “Equal Pay Act” for women.

    102. Raise the minimum wage to $10.10

    103. Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit

    104. Reform the tax code to help lower-class Americans save

    105. Give every American access to “an automatic IRA on the job.”

    106. Ensure Americans never have to wait more than a half hour to vote.

    107. Pass legislation that will prevent mass shooting tragedies.

    108. End the Afghan war by the end of 2014.

    109. Close Guantanamo Bay Prison in 2014.

    110. End the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

    111. Ensure the Iran will stop installing advanced centrifuges.

    112. Be the “first” to call for more sanctions if Iran doesn’t abandon nuclear program.

    113. Reform Veterans Affairs so that vets no longer have to deal with backlogs and instead receive the health care that they need.


    2015

    114. Cutting taxes for working families

    115. Make child-care affordable through $3,000 tax credits per child, per year.

    116. Work with states to pass paid-leave laws.

    117. Pass “Equal Pay Act.”

    118. Make two years of community college “as free and universal” as high school.

    119. Make sure students can afford student loan payments.

    120. Pass a bipartisan infrastructure plan.

    121. Cure cancer.

    122. Cure diabetes.

    123. Give all Americans access to personalized health recommendations.

    124. Put high-speed Internet in every classroom.

    125. Put high-speed Internet in every community.

    126. Build the fastest networks on Earth.

    127. Convert sunlight into liquid fuel.

    128. Create “revolutionary prosthetics so that a disabled veteran can play catch with his kid again.”

    129. Colonize outer space.

    130. Close loopholes that reward companies for creating jobs abroad and reward them for creating jobs in America.

    131. Using savings from closed loopholes to rebuild infrastructure.

    132. Lower repatriation tax

    133. Simplify tax code so small business owners pay based on “what’s on her bank statement, instead of the number of accountants she can afford.”

    134. Close loophole that lets people avoid paying taxes on “accumulated wealth”.

    135. Use money from closed loopholes to send kids to college, pay for health care.

    136. Destroy ISIS

    137. Prevent foreign nations, hackers from stealing data from accessing our networks and stealing trade secrets and invading our privacy

    138. Close Gitmo

    139. Enact criminal justice reform

    140. Seek out Republican ideas to make America strong"

    https://grabien.com/story.php?id=45618
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  8. #87
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Evensual, I think every President makes a bunch of silly promises during the State of the Onion address.

    Per politifact, Obama has kept about 45% of his campaign promises.
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ises/obameter/

    The GOP Congress has kept about 38% of its promises
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...ledge-o-meter/


    Kind of apples and oranges and both have broken about 1/3 of their promises. I couldn't find such info for previous Presidents. I am not defending promises, but if we are discussing whether Obama's presidency is a failure, then I really believe we have to look at his time in office as a totality and we have to give it time to see how his policies have influenced history. Failure is also really a subjective measure. I mean, the chances are that if you are calling his Presidency a failure, then he has actually probably been pretty successful in the eyes of the liberals who actually voted for him. If you were hailing his time in office a success, do you think those same liberals would agree? This is why we have to wait. Allow biases to fade a little. Take it out of ideological politics and look back and say whether his policies made America better or worse. There is simply no way to predict the future in order to make this assessment right now.
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  9. #88
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd View Post
    Kind of apples and oranges ...
    Yep.
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  10. #89
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Saying he promised to cure cancer is disingenuous. Its a goal, not a promise. It's been a goal for a good long time, will be until it gets done. His proposed budgets generally do have increased funding for science programs. That is about as much as most president's can do to cure cancer.

    Lots of this stuff is pretty much the same, aspirational objectives that presidents can often at best throw some money at. There are also a lot of folks working to stop many of these efforts.

    Anyone who listens to a stump speech or state of the union and thinks "Gosh I wager the president will do all that and more!" is pretty naive. You want to hear what they hope to accomplish and what they are going to do to try and accomplish it. You hope they are successful but you really shouldn't assume it.
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  12. #90
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by evensaul View Post
    Yep.
    Do you have historical data on Presidents ability to keep promises?
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  13. #91
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    Quote Originally Posted by baileyjay View Post
    hello all
    Come on now. You can do better than this.
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    Re: Obama's Is A Failed Presidency

    How Trump is rolling back Obama’s legacy

    During President Trump’s first year in office, Congress and his administration plan to review, revoke and overwrite key parts of his predecessor’s domestic legacy.
    As of Jan. 18, here are the Obama-era rules and regulations impacted by:

    17 Executive actions issued by Trump, which have the full force of law. Four more are in the works. One was tried and failed.
    cabinet trump

    96 Cabinet-level agency decisions from Trump's executive branch. 32 more are in the works.

    14 Congressional Review Acts targeting recently issued regulations. 20 were tried and failed.

    3 New legislation passed by Congress, which could affect old laws. One is in the works. One was tried and failed.

    Read more at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...=.8bb4cd26e631
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

 

 
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