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  1. #1
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    What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016...ion-track.html
    Per Fox News and reported by lots of other media outlets, the FBI is now looking at more than emails and national security. They are now widening the net to consider whether Hillary was using the Clinton Foundation improperly.


    I understand that if you love Hillary, then when she says the story is false, you believe her. I understand that if you dislike Hillary, then anything but a conviction proves the FBI is corrupt. So, with this clearly understood, what happens to Hillary, the Democrats, and the Presidential race if she is formally charged. There is no way any sort of conviction or exoneration will have occurred by election time. So, hypothetically, will Clinton supporters turn a blind eye to her hypothetical ethical indiscretions or will they finally concede she simply cannot be President?

    My belief is that the Democrats are so void of any sort of plan B, they are forced to ride that horse come hell or high water. This was the danger Wasserman took when she pretty much turned this into a dog and pony show and ensured no one else in the party could challenge Clinton. At the very least, they could have encouraged Biden to come in as a plan B. Now, they have got an absolutely unelectable Bernie Sanders and O'Malley whom no one has ever heard of. The Dems are screwed and this hurts in more ways than one. If (and this is a hypothetical) Hillary is forced out or just made a paper candidate, unelectable due to formal indictments, Democrats won't even have a reason to turn out to vote for President. Hopes for the Democrats to retake the Senate suddenly look very bleak too. Wasserman will take the fall. The entire Democrat party falls into some amount of chaos and will, for some amount of time, look a lot like the current Republican party.

    Now, I think it is fair to say that NO ONE knows what the FBI is doing or where their work will lead them. So, I am not making any sort of claim regarding the chances that Hillary will be indicted. I do believe that Hillary and the entire party will be in full attack mode on the FBI and the back channel conversations will be highly entertaining. If anyone has read excerpts of the battle between Louis Freeh and Bill Clinton during his Presidency... I think that'll be patty cake compared to this. I mean, the Democrats risk losing just about everything here. Will they try to pull FBI funding? Will some FBI scandal suddenly get exposed? There are two women right now losing a lot of sleep. Clinton for obvious reasons. Wasserman for less obvious reasons. But Wasserman will take the fall for this and her political career will be over.
    The U.S. is currently enduring a zombie apocalypse. However, in a strange twist, the zombie's are starving.

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  3. #2
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd View Post
    So, hypothetically, will Clinton supporters turn a blind eye to her hypothetical ethical indiscretions or will they finally concede she simply cannot be President?
    We live in a country where the Kardashians matter, where grown adults think two polar bears walked from the North Pole to the Middle East to get on a boat built by a 500 year old man, where other grown adults think giving away tax money doesn't help create a nanny-state, and where Kaitlin Jenner is Woman of the Year.

    Do you really expect to be surprised here?

  4. #3
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dionysus View Post
    where grown adults think two polar bears walked from the North Pole to the Middle East to get on a boat built by a 500 year old man
    I agree, fundamentalist christians are hilarious.

    But your premise that Bernie Sanders is unelectable is flawed. Bernie got the conservative vote in Vermont, repeatedly. Maybe not your kind of conservative - ridiculous "build a fence" conservatives - but the ones who actually have brains. Enough to win him the election.

    The same is not true, there are no "Trump democrats" like Reagan unfortunately had.
    "Real Boys Kiss Boys" -M.L.

  5. #4
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by CowboyX View Post
    I agree, fundamentalist christians are hilarious.

    But your premise that Bernie Sanders is unelectable is flawed. Bernie got the conservative vote in Vermont, repeatedly. Maybe not your kind of conservative - ridiculous "build a fence" conservatives - but the ones who actually have brains. Enough to win him the election.

    The same is not true, there are no "Trump democrats" like Reagan unfortunately had.
    Well... we will disagree on whether Bernie is electable. The question is whether Democrats would be willing to throw their eggs in the Bernie basket. Would he even make it to a national election? Or, will Democrats hang on to Hillary even if she is under indictment? Would public corruption charges be enough to get Democrats to elect someone other than Hillary? While you are entitled to believe Bernie could win a national election, I am not sure that view is popular among Democrats. I mean, I am not sure the Democratic mainstream is as optimistic as you are about his chances. So, will Democrats put ethics and integrity above winning or will they risk it all and push Hillary out there even if the FBI investigation is basically showing she is guilty.

    One thing to keep in mind with my hypothetical is that when the federal government decides to bring charges against someone, the federal government almost always wins. Per the DOJ in their 2011 report, they had a 90% conviction success rate for official corruption charges.
    http://www.justice.gov/sites/default.../10statrpt.pdf

    So, an indictment by the DOJ is not a conviction, but the odds are long that the defendant will walk away innocent. As it currently stands, if the Fox News report is to be believed, there seems to be a good chance that the DOJ will press some sort of charges against her. So, how long do Democrats support her and would they be willing to support her in the national election with charges hanging over her head? Imagine she does get through the primary races and is facing off against Trump or Cruz or whomever. If the indictments come down at that point, could Bernie (or any other Democrat) suddenly rise up, start up a national campaign, and win the Presidency? I know that you will immediately jump on the news source and you probably believe Hillary 100% when she says there is nothing to the story and that it is false. Ok. Fine. At what point, though, do you and other voters start looking at plan B? Is there a viable plan B and what sort of window do Democrat voters have to switch to plan B?
    The U.S. is currently enduring a zombie apocalypse. However, in a strange twist, the zombie's are starving.

  6. #5
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    The scandal and crimes are real.

    But do you really think Clinton will be indicted by an Attorney General appointed by Obama?
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  7. #6
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by IBELSD
    So, with this clearly understood, what happens to Hillary, the Democrats, and the Presidential race if she is formally charged.
    Al Gore comes out of retirement. He or Biden.. basically anyone with a "D" next to their name.. and they get 40% of the vote without trying.

    Quote Originally Posted by IBELSD
    could Bernie (or any other Democrat) suddenly rise up, start up a national campaign,
    The media would take care of any lacking official national campaign, wall to wall interviews and news about the interviews.
    Even trump would be drowned out.

    At least that is the kind of thing I would expect.

    To the question of could they win or not, I don't know. If a embattled Hillary could win(which she could even if the conviction was going to happen the day after the election) I don't see an insurmountable problem for any other D.
    To serve man.

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  9. #7
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by CowboyX View Post
    The same is not true, there are no "Trump democrats" like Reagan unfortunately had.
    I'm not sure where you got this idea. While I think Trump is a ridiculously, over the top terrible candidate, and in no way a Conservative (he, like Sanders, is a Populist), his populism does appear to appeal to democrats:

    About 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they would buck the party and vote for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in a general election, according to a new poll.

    The willingness of some Democrats to change sides could be a major problem for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton this fall.

    The new figures were released by Mercury Analytics, a research company with clients that include MSNBC and Fox News, as the result of an online poll and dial-test of Trump’s first campaign ad.
    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ump-poll-shows







    More relevantly to the thread, I think MT is probably right.

    Sec. Clinton's numbers have already trended downward over the last few weeks with Sen. Sanders being competitive in many early primary states. The problem is, he isn't really electable nationally, Cowboy's optimism aside. He does ok in one on one polls, but that is largely because independents don't know really what he stands for, when you look at polls like the PPP and Quinipac polls, those who both identify as independent and know his platform don't vote for him. Most interestingly imo, is that like Trump the raw numbers of "likely to turn out" drop significantly, meaning they have a big enthusiasm gap.

    What likely happens is that one or both parties try to pull of a brokered convention and that causes an uproar with their bases.
    "Suffering lies not with inequality, but with dependence." -Voltaire
    "Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.” -G.K. Chesterton
    Also, if you think I've overlooked your post please shoot me a PM, I'm not intentionally ignoring you.


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  11. #8
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by CowboyX View Post
    The same is not true, there are no "Trump democrats" like Reagan unfortunately had.
    I think you just make up crap without idea whether it is true.
    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ump-poll-shows
    "If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on Earth." - Ronald Reagan

  12. #9
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    I have not encountered any Democrats that are dead set against Bernie Sanders so in theory if Hillary suffered a major setback (such as being shown clearly guilty of some serious criminal act) then they could well line up behind him. Obama beat her when she was considered a shoo it and there was no serious scandal. Bernie isn't winning at the moment but he's far from out of the race, he's got money and a lot of broad support. I'll be voting for him, not that it matters in this discussion.

    What would be something of a disaster is if she got the nomination and then ran into serious scandal. That would be kind of a mess.

    Personally I think if she did things wrong its the kind of thing most people don't really care much about. Unless you are bribing, stealing, ****ing or killing someone most scandal is kind of a wash.
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  13. #10
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    I have not encountered any Democrats that are dead set against Bernie Sanders so in theory if Hillary suffered a major setback (such as being shown clearly guilty of some serious criminal act) then they could well line up behind him. Obama beat her when she was considered a shoo it and there was no serious scandal. Bernie isn't winning at the moment but he's far from out of the race, he's got money and a lot of broad support. I'll be voting for him, not that it matters in this discussion.

    What would be something of a disaster is if she got the nomination and then ran into serious scandal. That would be kind of a mess.

    Personally I think if she did things wrong its the kind of thing most people don't really care much about. Unless you are bribing, stealing, ****ing or killing someone most scandal is kind of a wash.
    Wow, you are actually supporting Bernie? Ok. Off-topic. Let's stick to the point here.

    Per the Fox News report, the FBI is looking into a pay-to-play type of scandal concerning Hillary and the Clinton Foundation. This is a very sophisticated bribery scandal. Problematic since most voters (regardless of party) are probably a little too moronic to understand the details. However, that's the thing here. If Clinton is able to win the nomination, only to be indicted during the national campaign, that'd be a big uh-oh for the DNC. It is not just money. There are all sorts of issues here if Clinton had to drop out. You don't just put a national campaign together in a week or two. Not only money, it requires organization. You have to get your name on the ballot in each state. There is strategy. Here is the additional problem. Because Wasserman-Schulz has basically gone all girl-power and refused to expose any candidates other than Hillary, it will be real tough if they have to suddenly get national name-recognition. I just think the DNC is behaving irrationally here by not somewhat hedging their bets. I think that if the FBI formally indicts Hillary, it is game-over for Debbie and the DNC. She's out of a job and the Democrats lose badly. Without a viable national candidate, they will certainly remain the minority in the Senate.
    The U.S. is currently enduring a zombie apocalypse. However, in a strange twist, the zombie's are starving.

  14. #11
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by evensaul View Post
    I think you just make up crap without idea whether it is true.
    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ump-poll-shows
    That's better than posting a source without even bothering to read, let alone comprehend, it.

    ---------- Post added at 11:50 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    I have not encountered any Democrats that are dead set against Bernie Sanders so in theory if Hillary suffered a major setback (such as being shown clearly guilty of some serious criminal act) then they could well line up behind him. Obama beat her when she was considered a shoo it and there was no serious scandal. Bernie isn't winning at the moment but he's far from out of the race, he's got money and a lot of broad support. I'll be voting for him, not that it matters in this discussion.

    What would be something of a disaster is if she got the nomination and then ran into serious scandal. That would be kind of a mess.

    Personally I think if she did things wrong its the kind of thing most people don't really care much about. Unless you are bribing, stealing, ****ing or killing someone most scandal is kind of a wash.
    Where his money came from speaks volumes. It is only the tag of "socialist" that is holding people back, he has done very well with conservatives who get to know what he's about in Vermont.

    It just goes to show you how far we've come and how much damage the cold war and red hysteria has done to the socialist movement...mirrored, of course, in our declining middle class which was built upon socialist policies.
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  15. #12
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd View Post
    Wow, you are actually supporting Bernie? Ok. Off-topic. Let's stick to the point here.
    I voted for Ross Perot and Obama, I'm just that kind of guy. Underdogs that don't smack of the usual politics are my wheelhouse. Mind you given Trump and Bernie's success this year, its starting to feel like more and more of the country is thinking like I do in this regard.

    Per the Fox News report, the FBI is looking into a pay-to-play type of scandal concerning Hillary and the Clinton Foundation. This is a very sophisticated bribery scandal. Problematic since most voters (regardless of party) are probably a little too moronic to understand the details. However, that's the thing here. If Clinton is able to win the nomination, only to be indicted during the national campaign, that'd be a big uh-oh for the DNC. It is not just money. There are all sorts of issues here if Clinton had to drop out. You don't just put a national campaign together in a week or two. Not only money, it requires organization. You have to get your name on the ballot in each state. There is strategy. Here is the additional problem. Because Wasserman-Schulz has basically gone all girl-power and refused to expose any candidates other than Hillary, it will be real tough if they have to suddenly get national name-recognition. I just think the DNC is behaving irrationally here by not somewhat hedging their bets. I think that if the FBI formally indicts Hillary, it is game-over for Debbie and the DNC. She's out of a job and the Democrats lose badly. Without a viable national candidate, they will certainly remain the minority in the Senate.
    I suspect that if that situation arose they would just circle the wagons and spin spin spin deny deny deny and hope for the best. It would not be pretty. No doubt they are already doing what they can to head it off at the pass as a campaign. It's also possible (and would be most exciting as a news story) if she got elected then it she was indited.
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  16. #13
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by SIG
    It's also possible (and would be most exciting as a news story) if she got elected then it she was indited.
    I wondered about that.. what would that even look like. A trial, she is found guilty and then is put in jail, and we get her VP as pres for 4 years.

    That is hard to imagine happening. I mean, if the trial is during her pres, then she would be the boss of those investigating?

    I really have no clue how it would look politically, but it would be a very sad testament to the U.S. electorate. It would mean that people had chosen to ignore an actual crime, and decided to make them pres instead. The ultimate testimony to the blindness of the people for "their guy".

    Of course here in Louisiana we had an election where the campaign slogan was "elect the crook". You know because the other guy was David Duke, infamous racist. So, just that only to another level I guess.
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    I voted for Ross Perot and Obama, I'm just that kind of guy. Underdogs that don't smack of the usual politics are my wheelhouse. Mind you given Trump and Bernie's success this year, its starting to feel like more and more of the country is thinking like I do in this regard.
    I get Bernie and Perot... but Obama? Chicago? He smacked of politics as smarmy as all the rest.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    I suspect that if that situation arose they would just circle the wagons and spin spin spin deny deny deny and hope for the best. It would not be pretty. No doubt they are already doing what they can to head it off at the pass as a campaign. It's also possible (and would be most exciting as a news story) if she got elected then it she was indited.
    Yeah, that would be pretty exciting.

    I am just amazed that the DNC is not doing more to support a plan B option. Although, when it comes to Wasserman's ability to think rationally, it probably should not surprise me.
    The U.S. is currently enduring a zombie apocalypse. However, in a strange twist, the zombie's are starving.

  18. #15
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ibelsd View Post
    I get Bernie and Perot... but Obama? Chicago? He smacked of politics as smarmy as all the rest.
    He's political... but honestly I don't see him as the usual politics. I tend to find he follows his convictions on issues but compromises to try and get them implemented. I don't see much of the usual jingoism or double speak nor much corruption or kick backs to personal businesses he's got an interest in. His ambitions seem to be purely political rather than political and personal. Basically I find him very genuine, much like me in many ways, somewhat reserved, warm but not gushing. Clearly he's a lot more focused and ambitious than I am but I just get a fellow traveler kind of vibe from him. The feeling I get from most politicians is the same I get from a lot of company execs, half full of ****, half self aggrandizing, half actually trying to get business done. And ya, three halves which tends to leave them stretched thin.

    https://www.quora.com/How-is-Barack-Obama-in-person (here are some takes from folks who met him briefly that to me jive with what I see)
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  19. #16
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sigfried View Post
    He's political... but honestly I don't see him as the usual politics. I tend to find he follows his convictions on issues but compromises to try and get them implemented. I don't see much of the usual jingoism or double speak nor much corruption or kick backs to personal businesses he's got an interest in. His ambitions seem to be purely political rather than political and personal. Basically I find him very genuine, much like me in many ways, somewhat reserved, warm but not gushing. Clearly he's a lot more focused and ambitious than I am but I just get a fellow traveler kind of vibe from him. The feeling I get from most politicians is the same I get from a lot of company execs, half full of ****, half self aggrandizing, half actually trying to get business done. And ya, three halves which tends to leave them stretched thin.

    https://www.quora.com/How-is-Barack-Obama-in-person (here are some takes from folks who met him briefly that to me jive with what I see)
    I think he's kind of a cross between Carter and Kennedy. All the charm of Kennedy and all the incompetency of Carter.
    The U.S. is currently enduring a zombie apocalypse. However, in a strange twist, the zombie's are starving.

  20. #17
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Long way to go but Sanders is making a real go of it and the support I see among folks I know seems to be materializing in mass. Plan B is making a serious bid to be plan A and I think we can say if she stumbles significantly, the new question will be can an Atheist/Jew/"Democratic Socialist" win the Presidency.

    I'll just say that if he does, I'll feel like some strange dimension has opened up and my country has somehow become a lot more like me. That would feel weird.
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  21. #18
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Our country shaking off this ridiculous religious yoke would be the best thing for the republican party.
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  22. #19
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    The counter is that he better Sanders does the more likely the "Draft Biden" contingent becomes and the more likely Bloomberg makes an independent run. I think either of those scenarios probably hurt D turnout in the fall and make an electoral victory pretty slim. Then again, they may be running against Trump, which may make their job a little easier imo.
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  23. #20
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    Re: What happens if Clinton scandal is real?

    Quote Originally Posted by Squatch347 View Post
    The counter is that he better Sanders does the more likely the "Draft Biden" contingent becomes and the more likely Bloomberg makes an independent run. I think either of those scenarios probably hurt D turnout in the fall and make an electoral victory pretty slim. Then again, they may be running against Trump, which may make their job a little easier imo.
    Drafting Biden sounds pretty zany. Biden is not going to generate the least bit of excitement. He's "Oh ya that guy, he's nice enough I suppose. Heard he was good at embarrassing himself."

    Bloomberg might have some appeal, I'd certainly have to give him some consideration and I'm a sucker for third party candidates. That said, Bloomberg would win based on the folks Bernie and Trump marginalize in the middle and among more sober older voters. I think you are right that Bernie candidacy makes Bloomberg a bit more likely, the only thing is, he's got to make that decision before it's clear who wins the primary if he wants to get his apparatus up and running.
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