Future History: 2nd American Civil War

[evensaul]

With an increasing polarization of American politics and underlying cultures, the chances of a 2nd American Civil War appear to be increasing. This op assumes that rather than two specific regions embattled, it would be Social Democrats vs Republicans. (Arguments against this premise will be ignored.) It is admitted here that how the US armed forces took sides and, barring that, how foreign powers took part could decide the outcome. So those factors will be set aside.

To begin looking at such a conflict, a good place to start is a voting map for the recent 2016 presidential election based on precinct level voting:



And one weighted for population numbers:



As even the most casual political observers would anticipate, many of the large urban areas have a high density of Democrats, while much of rural America is less populated but heavily Republican.

Many other factors to consider, including:

Polls suggest that most retired military officers may be Republican, while retired combat troops are pretty evenly split.

More Republican's own guns than Democrats, and the Democrat gun owners lean towards hand guns rather than rifles.

The Democrat controlled urban areas may have more industrial capacity, but I think they'd have a real problem keeping people fed.

Considering only the above items so far, I'd lean towards Republicans to win in a terribly bloody and prolonged battle.

[mican333]

While I won't say that future civil war is impossible, I would say the scenario you laid out for the war is very unrealistic. Your scenario seems to be that the Republicans and Social Democrats, along the political lines that currently exist, are going to go to their separate camps, arm up, and start fighting.

The starting point would not be one side saying, in essence, "Hey, let's have a war!" and the other side saying "You got it! Let the fighting begin!". The much more likely scenario is SOME people from one side, which would almost certainly be the more radical elements of them (so the extreme right or the extreme left) would decide that using violent force is the appropriate solution to "fixing the problem" and then these "rebels" launch an attack against members from the other side. So suddenly a bunch of people on the "other side" are bombed, gunned down, and so on (in what would be almost certainly be labeled "terrorist attacks").

Then the issue is where does the government/law enforcement come down on this. I would think that in this day and age, no matter which side, left or right, committed those acts of violence, the government would label them "terrorists" and oppose the rebels so the battle lines would be government versus rebels. The alternative governmental scenarios (the government supports the rebels or the government splits its support between the rebels and those they attacked) seem highly unlikely.

Also, if some extreme Right-wingers did start committing violence against DS members, it seems more likely that most of the Republicans who weren't involved in the initial violence would oppose the rebels instead of join them so the line would not be "Republicans vs. SD" but "Extremist Republicans vs. Moderate Republics and SD" (and the same principle goes if Leftists were responsible for the initial hostilities).

So a somewhat realistic scenario of civil war would be rebels (be they left or right) versus the government and I very much doubt the rebels could win that fight, especially if they strike the first blow as the general population would not be on their side (since people generally don't like terrorism). So yes, it could be bloody but nothing much will get accomplished besides a bunch of people get killed.

The scenario where the Republicans or the Social Democrats actually defeat the other side in a conventional war is almost certainly not going to happen unless society changes in some radical and unforeseen ways.

[MindTrap028]

I think the challenge with civil war predictions, is identifying the flash point.
Given a flash point we can project sides, and battle lines.

I'm not clear on what the flashpoint is in the OP. Just general political party difference?

[mican333]

I think the challenge with civil war predictions, is identifying the flash point.
Given a flash point we can project sides, and battle lines.

I'm not clear on what the flashpoint is in the OP. Just general political party difference?

I would think the most likely scenario of large violent conflict would be:

The Mueller investigation finds damning evidence and Trump is impeached and many of his followers see it as a coup, essentially that the government was stolen, and decide to go to war over it.

But per my previous post, it would be a situation of rebels vs. government. I can't see a scenario where the battle lines are drawn in the same fashion that election lines are drawn. Most people, regardless of whether they are left or right, are not going to voluntarily take up arms to kill those that they have political differences with.

[MindTrap028]

How about the left surprisingly win a majority in house and senate, and impeach trump on no new evidence.

I don't think conservatives would go to war over an investigation finding evidence. I could see dems moving to impeach on based on hatred though.

[mican333]

How about the left surprisingly win a majority in house and senate, and impeach trump on no new evidence.

I don't think conservatives would go to war over an investigation finding evidence. I could see dems moving to impeach on based on hatred though.

And if they stay in power, I could see the Republican refusing to impeach regardless of how strong the evidence against Trump is.

But while I would not expect the Republicans as a whole to go to war against Democrats for any realistic reason, I could see some violence from some of his fans if Trump were impeached and of course if the, IMO, rather unrealistic scenario of Democrats impeaching Trump even if they have no evidence of an impeachable crime occurred, the outrage, and therefore the violence, would likely be worse.

And the flashpoint for a realistic scenario of the left being moved to violence (but it would be a small minority just like it would a minority of the right in the above scenario) would be if the Republican shut down the Mueller investigation before it's finished (I think that would be more provocative than refusing to impeach even if the investigation turned up real evidence). There being large-scale protests would be a certainty. I don't think there would be any real violence, though.

[Belthazor]

Considering only the above items so far, I'd lean towards Republicans to win in a terribly bloody and prolonged battle.

Strictly using your Op, I doubt the majority of the fighting would be a protracted. Urban areas would lose control of the population at an incredibly rapid case. Rep's wouldn't even have to attack New York for instance as the city would destroy itself in days without military support. Local law enforcement would be overwhelmed in short order.

There could be gorilla fighting but I think country people would be better at such a tactic than an urban dweller.

People that live in the country are more used to doing for themselves as opposed to city dwellers.

Liberals would not stand any kind of chance in your scenario.

[CowboyX]

And the flashpoint for a realistic scenario of the left being moved to violence (but it would be a small minority just like it would a minority of the right in the above scenario) would be if the Republican shut down the Mueller investigation before it's finished (I think that would be more provocative than refusing to impeach even if the investigation turned up real evidence). There being large-scale protests would be a certainty. I don't think there would be any real violence, though.

Indeed. The violence will begin on the right. Substitute Obama for Trump in Helsinki and I doubt Obama would have been let back in the country. Oh, I guess he would have but would be under heavy guard and secured maybe not even at the White House. I'd wonder what the militia type groups would do and if they could peel off military units in support.