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  1. #1
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    Feb 2006
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    Mind Trapped by: Self driving Cars, it's social effects.

    It is time to face the reality that self driving cars are coming soon. Like within the next 20 years soon. Here I will lay out some social side effects I think will occur, and we can discuss others possibilities, and discuss their reasonableness and challenges.

    It's only a matter of time. The technology is beyond the concept point and the kinks are being worked out. This is going to be our new reality. My prediction of timing could be off by 10-20 years in any direction, but there should be no question that from a technical standpoint, there is no problem that can't be solved. Computers will be able to be more aware of their surroundings, more precise in it's reactions, and ultimately superior in every way at doing the job of driving a vehicle.

    Who it will effect first to last.
    To the loud objection to truckers, they will be first hit. Some of their routs are the easiest to control, and they represent a hug inefficiency in the market. The routs of warehouse to warehouse are the most controllable. The inefficiency they represent is all the miles of empty cargo, as well as time down because of human necessity to sleep. The truckers major objection is that it takes a person to hook and unhook the loads, and that person is typically the driver. Another inefficient is found in the complication of all the competing trucking companies. This is partly due to not having precis information on where the truck actually is, in relation to other loads. How far the trucker (and thus the truck) has to drive to get back home. etc. Basically there were many unknowns that will now be tracked and measured by computers, creating the opportunity to stream line.

    Second hit, will be the individuals who own and operate a second vehicle. This is the first effect that I don't think people have really considered. Next time you drive around your neighborhood, look at all the driveways that contain one or even two cars, when the main source of income has already driven to work. Self driving cars will enable people to share vehicles. I can drive to work, then the car can go back home, and one car can serve the purpose that 2 cars currently do. On top of that, people will be able to share cars across the city. Instead of buying a second car, I could buy into a club that will give me access to a second vehicle. Rental cars will take on a whole new roll in our lives.

    Last it will be individuals who drive at all. You driving on the public roads will become illegal. Because you will represent an uncontrolled wild card danger. At first, you will simply be economically punished for driving at all. It won't take insurance companies long to realize that the self driving cars are rarely in the wrong for accidents. Driving is all about playing by the rules, and people simply can't precisely play by the rules. Your in a 45mph zone, you are involved in an accident with a self driving car. It has recorded you going 46mph, while it was doing the speed limit. You were speeding, breaking the rules.. so you will tend to be at fault. You thought you had the right of way..... nope the self driving car recording shows that it got to the stop sign a second before you, and that you didn't actually come to a full stop, while it did. Point is, there will be clarity on what happened, because it will be captured in an indisputable way, and those little fudges that humans make that computers won't .. will make the difference in liability. Making self driving cars cheaper to insure. Also, they will by nature have to play by the rules, and new rules will be provided for them. Like we saw the example where a self driving car hit a woman trying to cross the street. In the future that distinction will be made clearer by the law, namely... you can't get on the street if your not a car in provided areas. Just like trains are never in the wrong for accidents the law will see self driving cars more like trains. Their every action ultimately per-approved by the state.

    Let that last one sink in a bit, because it represents the largest social change that I can imagine. basically illegal to drive...
    When I presented this idea to a good friend of mine, they actually became angry at the idea. Likened it to communism, and objected to the notion that people would allow it to happen. For me, I just see some very powerful economic forces that look like they lead in that direction one way or another.

    Efficiency the market will long for.
    -A road full of self driving cars will be able to give gov and service vehicles basically an open road, as vehicles out of sight will anticipate their arrival and be able to provide clear lanes.
    -Traffic in general will become more regular, with all those milliseconds of human reaction delays taken out of the equation.. a light that lets 4 cars through.. will actually get all 4 cars through, instead of just the one old lady who was busy figuring out if her foot was still on the break.
    -It will take few vehicles to accomplish the task of servicing the needs of families. Making for billions of dollars in savings.
    - more efficient traffic is going to make the tree huggers' orgasm with excitement on saving the planet.
    - Families will be able to afford flexibility on the kind of vehicle they need for that day. Need to move some stuff and want a truck... bam a truck shows up at your door. Is it just you today, bam small sports car shows up. Got your kids and the neighbors for a party... bam! A small bus shows up at your door. All for the low price of 19.99 per month... but wait their more!! Upgrade your service now, and you will get the Jaguar package free!!

    Edit-- One last effect. Your taxes are going to go up. Right now there are many places that pay for their police services through tickets. Speed traps, seat-belt violations etc. Self driving cars are going to eliminate speeding fines. So your taxes are going to go up.

    Who this is going to hurt.
    Truckers, taxi drivers (not companies), car sales, individuals longing for freedom on the open roads. People who break the law.

    Who this is going to help.
    Police, Bikers, everyone in traffic.

    Am I just way off? What am I missing? Who else will be effected? How will it ultimately effect you?
    Last edited by MindTrap028; September 21st, 2018 at 07:45 AM.
    To serve man.



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